Archive for category Precautionary principle

It looks as if the European Union’s famous precautionary principle is behind this absurdly risk averse air travel ban.

Writing for the Guardian, Simon Jenkins observes: “The truth is that putting large, heavy bits of metal into the air is just too much for the psyche of modern regulators. They panic. The slightest risk cannot be taken or someone might blame the regulators, whose job is not to assess risk but avert it. Even an airline company, with everything to lose, is not allowed to assess its own risk.”

Frank Furedi on Spiked: “The eruption of a volcano in Iceland poses technical problems, for which responsible decision-makers should swiftly come up with sensible solutions. But instead, Europe has decided to turn a problem into a drama. In 50 years’ time, historians will be writing about our society’s reluctance to act when practical problems arose. It is no doubt difficult to face up to a natural disaster – but in this case it is the all-too-apparent manmade disaster brought on by indecision and a reluctance to engage with uncertainty that represents the real threat to our future.”

EU transport ministers hold emergency talks this afternoon over air travel crisis this afternoon and there is growing anger that European authorities panicked and closed down the skies unnecessarily.

UPDATE – THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION INTERVENES:
Europe should reduce its volcanic ash flight ban to “several dozen kilometres” around Iceland and rethink the Met Office science behind the current no fly restrictions, said a senior European Commission official today.
Matthias Ruete, the Commission’s director general of transport, criticised national air traffic authorities for relying on a single source of scientific evidence for the four day ban, which has created a major aviation crisis.
“The science behind the model we are running at the moment is based on certain assumptions where we do not have clear scientific evidence,” he said.
“We don’t even know what density the cloud should be in order to affect jet engines. We have a model that runs on mathematical projections.”
“It is probability rather than actual things happening.”

The Dutch have led the way to accuse Europe, in the form of the intergovernmental Eurocontrol, of over reacting to the volcano ash cloud and are pushing to restore flights. KLM and Lufthansa, which held test flights over the weekend (give those pilots a medal) say that most of Europe’s skies are safe.

European air control authorities at Eurocontrol have admitted that they have interpreted international guidelines “more rigorously” than the US.

Here’s Camiel Eurlings, the Dutch transport minister: “I do not think that Europe needs to be stricter than a country such as America, where you have a lot of volcanoes erupting. Those people have a lot of experience and do not close the whole airspace. If we remain on the present course, then I predict we will remain in this misery for a very long time. That will not help travellers or the air sector and it is probably not necessary.”

Lufthansa, rightly furious over this disaster, has said it was “scandalous” to impose a ban based on limited data from virtual computer modelling rather than real flights testing safety.

A spokesman said: “We found no damage to the engines, fuselage or cockpit windows. This is why we are urging the aviation authorities to run more test flights rather than relying on computer models.”

Giovanni Bisignani, the head of IATA, has been on the BBC this morning to accuse the Europeans of creating a “mess”, of banning flights without a proper risk assessment and of not showing leadership. He is right.

Europe has lost its nerve. It relied on UN and British Met Office computer simulations rather than real science, that is testability, samples and experimental test flights. America, which has its own volcanoes, as Mr Eurlings observed,  uses a different system that, backed by test flights, aims to keep the air travel moving.

It took pilots (who led the fight back, first at KLM and Lufthansa, then at Air France and British Airways) and airlines to make the tests that could challenge the tyranny of experts who use theoretical models and the precautionary principle to make policy, this time at an obviously huge and unacceptable cost.

A big part of the problem is the powerful, deeply conservative and risk averse environmentalist strain (or should it be stain?) in European politics.

This political development has catapulted the expert – especially the climate scientist – to the top of a hierarchy that tells us how to run our lives based on the principle that human activity, if it is not downright negative, carries huge risks.

Naturally, these crazy green anti-humanist types have celebrated the volcano as scoring a long overdue victory by nature over us horrible humans, with all our nasty civilisation and progress such as air travel, a particular bug bear for environmentalists.

Here’s the intro from a British newspaper, the Observer: “The eruption in Iceland and the ash cloud that has brought our airlines to a standstill give us a true picture of our standing in nature. [...] By colonising the space above our heads and above much of our continent, the eruption provides a reminder of our status in relation to our planet and over which we have arrogantly seized stewardship. We imagine ourselves its master and yet with one modest belch it hems us into our little island, sweeping instantly from the skies the aeroplane, which we consider to be an example of the irrepressible genius of our species.”

Thankfully, some brave Dutch, German, French and British pilots did not swallow this kind of defeatist nonsense and were ready to risk test flights that have challenged mindless orthodoxy and the tyranny of the experts. They are true Europeans.

POSTSCRIPTUM
I am pleased to be back here after a long break, for reasons too tedious to go into.

I cannot resist signing off with some of the bleats and sniffling from MEPs who have not got the gumption to get in a car and to drive to Strasbourg. There is no excuse for them not to show up this evening.

Here is Sonia Alfano MEP: “As regard my situation it would be very hazardous and risky to attend the plenary because I need to take 3 flights. EP can not clearly vote under these circumstances. It seems that maintaining the plenary in spite of rationality consideration, would be the result of pressure from some countries. I hope it’s not true, it would say we (MEPs, assistants, officials and other servants of the European parliament) are properly taken as hostages for political consideration. It’s clearly unacceptable.”

Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert MEP (who is not showing the same grit as KLM): “Can we have a realit-y check please? What about all these passengers trying to find their way home/destination (already for days) and us causing even more burden on trains, roads etc.? European citizens will be furious if they’ll find about this, and rightly so.”

Um, well, I think European citizens will be more annoyed to know that an Italian and a Dutch MEP cannot stir their stumps to board a train and or to get on the motorway to Strasbourg.