A new Conservative government would come under intense pressure to give Britain a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty following an amendment to the EU’s legal framework this summer.

Will the EU allow Cameron to avoid the issue? (Photo: Ewan McIntosh)

If the Tories win Thursday’s election, a Conservative government, probably nursing a small parliamentary majority, will want to leave the divisive issue of the EU well alone.

But David Cameron’s problem is that EU will not let him alone. A number of highly sensitive, even explosive, European issues are queued up to give him a headache should he enter Number 10, Downing Street.

First on the list is the return of that old political zombie the Lisbon Treaty.

The decision has already been taken by the EU to amend it in time to be signed off by a June summit, a gathering that could well be a new Tory PM’s first appearance in Brussels.

It gets worse.

The Spanish EU presidency wants to open a special “Inter-Governmental Conference” to appoint an extra 18 MEPs (who were not elected last June due to the Irish referendum No) on May 10.

But that Monday will be the first Brussels outing for a new British Foreign Secretary, quite possibly William Hague.

The British Foreign Office is worried and diplomats are lobbying hard to push an IGC back into late May in order to spare Conservative blushes.

The IGC/Lisbon Treaty issue is tricky for the Conservatives on two fronts.

Firstly, the Conservatives have promised to ask for powers to be “repatriated” back to London from Brussels. Not taking up this political pledge during an IGC, a forum where the EU treaty is opened for discussion, might look strange for Hague or Cameron at the moment they take power.

Secondly and most importantly, the amended treaty will also have to be voted on in a new House of Commons in the autumn leading to fresh calls for a British referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and opening up rifts over Europe in the Tory ranks. This is really difficult. Cameron has promised a popular vote on any new EU text, a high profile manifesto pledge that will be tested to the limits by the return of an amended Lisbon Treaty.

The Tories will use “tidying up” language to say that an amended treaty need not be put to a referendum. Here is an example from a Conservative spokesman: “The test for a referendum on a new treaty is whether it hands over an area of power from Britain to the EU. Adjusting the number of MEPs clearly wouldn’t, so no referendum would be required on this point.”

But is this argument, identical to that which would be used by either a Labour or Lib Dem government in the same circumstances, likely to convince a new intake of eurosceptic MPs in the House of Commons?

Rhetorical euroscepticism is one of the few comforting totems Conservatives have been allowed to keep. Is it really conceivable that eurosceptic Tory MPs will forget all those promises of referendums and all that Conservative leadership rhetoric against the Lisbon Treaty while voting an amended version through the parliament?

Cameron’s European policy, set out last November, is designed to retain some traditionalist eurosceptic cover while making sure, in reality, that the EU does not become an issue in the next term of the British parliament.

Conservative policy on Europe has always been dishonest.

It has always worn two faces: a pragmatic, more private one for the closed EU conclaves of leaders and officials in Brussels or Whitehall; a different public aspect for its eurosceptic supporters.

Conservative inconsistencies, evasions and internal tensions over the EU are quickly going to emerge.

It is not just the Lisbon Treaty, the rest of 2010 offers a host of difficult EU decisions to come:

• Regulation of hedge funds, delayed during the elections but it will be political dynamite this summer for the City – and their natural Tory friends.
• “2020 agenda” economic targets are to be set in Brussels on education and poverty, these are social affairs areas where the Tories have vowed to bring powers back to Britain.
• Herman Van Rompuy’s taskforce on economic governance – more targets, more EU surveillance and a possible new treaty – has its first meeting on May 20.
• A number of justice opt-in/opt-out decisions, which must be debated and agreed by the House of Commons within an eight week period.
• A fiercely contested Brussels budget for 2011 has proposed recession and austerity proof spending increases for the EU at a time when a British government will be cutting back.
• To make it worse, the EU will be kicking off a wider spending debate late this year and the future of that iconic Thatcher rebate will be up for grabs again.

It is not really a question of what impact the Conservatives will have on Europe. It is rather a question of how politically destructive the EU will be to the Tories.

UPDATE:

A Conservative row is already beginning.

“The Lisbon Treaty is going to have to be ratified by Parliament yet again after the General Election. David Cameron has always been explicit that had he been Prime Minister when the Treaty came forward for ratification, he would have held a referendum. Until now that has simply been a hypothetical situation – but now it is set to become a reality,” notes the CentreRight blog on Conservative Home.  “As well as being the right thing to do, a referendum pledge now could be dynamite in the last few days of the election. Clegg and Brown would be put on the spot, challenged to make such a pledge themselves. If they did, then it would be good for Britain, we’d get the Lisbon referendum we were all promised and Cameron would have shown himself to be a leader. If they did not, then Cameron would be able to head into the election as only man willing to trust the people by holding the long-desired referendum. This is a golden opportunity for the Conservatives to do the right thing by Britain and to do themselves a favour. David Cameron should grab it with both hands.”