Belarusian Tango

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on January 30, 2011

It’s been the talk of the town for a while and finally EU countries have come up with a verdict: fresh sanctions against Belarus. Two days before the official EU decision on Monday (31 January), seven opposition activists were released from the KGB detention centre in Minsk and put under house arrest, including one formal presidential candidate: Vladimir Neklyaev.

So why the sanctions? Since the evening of election day on 19 December Blearusian civil society has faced an unprecedented level of pressure.

Political activists, journalists, human rights defenders are being taken for questioning and arrested, their offices and flats are being searched. Three out of 10 presidential candidates are still in KGB detention centre, five ex-candidates and 37 people in total face harges of organising mass protests and could spend up to 15 years in prison.

Most of them haven’t met their lawyers since 29 December. All 37 have been recognised by Amnesty International as prisoners of conscience.

What could the EU do? Ban officials from entering EU countries; freeze their assets and property in EU countries; embargo products of Belarusian state companies.

What would it bring? Only the embargo option has an impact beyond the political. There are calculations that the Belarusian economy would collapse in a matter of months if Europe stops buying Belarusian oil products and potash fertilisers. On the other hand, any restrictions from the West would inevitably push Belarus eastwards – into Russia’s loving arms.

What do Belarusians want? Belarusians hope that imprisoned activists are released. They also hope for “positive sanctions” – more freedom to travel; enhanced and non-bureaucratic co-operation with NGOs and political parties; a long-term perspective for institution-building and social development. And they want no more Russia.

What’s it all about? Is the ultimate goal regime change? The democratisation of Belarus? If the latter, the EU should proceed with restricted political dialogue with the political elite and an extended dialogue with the population at large. I do hope they consider carefully the means, not just the end.

As the last month has shown, it’s very unlikely that the BY government has the potential to carry out structural democratic reforms and to open up. At the same time, the uninformed wider public in Belarus has no way to articulate its will, no public sphere in which to imagine a new path of development. We need external help to help ourselves.

If supermarkets have for decades only sold apples, why would you suddenly demand pineapples, which are anyway believed to  be “the worst form [of fruit?], except for all the others that have been tried?”

I know, the matter is a lot more complicated than I have pictured here. For informed Belarusians it’s been a very, VERY exhausting month. Every day has brought ups and downs and ups and then downs again. There is no signs the madness will end shortly, or that the EU  sanctions will really help.

The prisoner release on the eve of the EU foreign ministers’ meeting is the traditional Belarusian political tango: two steps backward and one step forward. Will the EU be deceived again?

If nothing else, Belarus is a wonderful stress test for EU foreign policy, and its influence on events in the Union’s most direct of neighbours.

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Happy? New? Yeah…

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on January 3, 2011

There’s nothing else you can talk about in Belarus these days. After the presidential election on 19 December people woke up in a different country. New year 2011 has brought a new reality to Belarus.

Probably, you didn’t hear?

A short retrospective, as I feel the need to explain myself, the same as German and Polish FMs Westerwelle and Sikorski – the architects of the EU-Belarus “critical” political dialogue. I’ve been trying to show it’s not that bad. Well, now it is.

Two weeks ago the authorities dispersed an anti-Lukashenka demonstration with extreme violence. About 700 people were detained, and not just protesters. People who were simply leaving bars or cinemas in Minsk city centre were also among those put under arrest for 10 to 15 days or fined. It’s as if someone wanted to make sure that the number of those detained was impressive enough. The detention reports were identical: everybody, apparently, was arrested at 10.30pm local time at the Nezavisimosti square, where an unauthorised demonstration took place and where they shouted anti-state (!) slogans – inter alia – “Long live Belarus.”

In the two weeks that followed, the crackdown has continued but in a more targeted way. The homes of the relatives of those arrested were searched, as well as the flats and offices of human rights defenders, opposition activists and journalists.

There’s also a (growing?) list of 27 people who could be charged with organising mass riots (facing between 5 and 15 years’ jail) and participating in them (3-8 years).

The list features seven former presidential rivals of Alyaksandr Lukashenka – Ryhor Kastusyow, Alyaksey Mikhalevich, Uladzimir Nyaklyayew, Vital Rymashewski, Andrey Sannikaw, Mikalay Statkevich and Dzmitry Uss.

All of them, except for Kastusyow and Uss, are being held in the KGB detention centre, even though the charges were brought by the Minsk city police. The news is coming out from the lawyers of those charged. There is no official information as this stage. Rymashewski was suddenly released today on his own recognisance (3 January). More people are expected to be released on the condition that they will not leave Minsk during the investigation.

Among the 27 on the list and in the KGB cells are the presidential candidates’ aides, journalists and opposition activists, but not the dozen or so people who broke the windows of a government building on 19 December. The attack on the building was a signal for the police to brutally disperse the whole unarmed crowd. They dozen assailants can be clearly seen on videos posted on the internet. Where are these still-unknown heroes? The minister of interior, Kulyashow, has promised to identify each and every one who was involved.

Meanwhile, the president-elect decided not to wait for the inauguration and appointed a new government (same faces, different positions). On 31 December Belarusian authorities sent another signal to the Western front: they found no objective reason to prolong the mandate of the OSCE office in Minsk (“We don’t need no education”).

Every action has a reaction.

I can hardly believe the massive wave of solidarity this has provoked: Social networks put aside their holidays, people have been raising money to pay the fines, discussing how they could help. The Guardian-Angel programme published the list of people arrested for 10-15 days and suggested ways to help: choose a person to supply with toilet paper, drinking water, warm clothes and so on, come to pick him/her up with a car when they are released.

Blogs and forums have analysed pictures and videos from the demonstration, compared official reports and independent media. Newspapers got phone-calls with stories such as: “Who can I tell that my mum took a taxi from the restaurant and was snatched out of it when it stopped at the traffic lights? She is arrested as a demonstration participant”.

The comment of the president-elect – that Christmas in Belarus was celebrated this year in a unique, unprecedented atmosphere – is indeed true.

This country, situated between the EU and Russia, has contained had a dividing line. Now the nation is more polarised than ever, mostly along age lines, not geographically, but geopolitically and, above all, emotionally. In his New Year’s address Lukashenka spoke of “the absolute majority” and “the minority.”

What’s going on? How far is Moscow involved? Is it the intention of Minsk to stop all cooperation with the West and put up with the opposition? Just like that? All of a sudden? That’s what “the minority” can’t stop talking about and finds no answers.

But the question that bothers me the most: what were the police guys thinking when they beat and kicked their own countrymen – people who were armed only with slogans?

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F for Frustration

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on December 21, 2010

It was over pretty quickly with the election tension in Belarus. Now it’s post-election blues.

Nobody expected the Spanish inquisition: it was beyond logic that some 20 thousand would gather in the centre of Minsk after the closure of the polling stations to protest against rigged votes, that more than 600 would be detained or arrested, dozens would be beaten up. The presidential candidates were virtually abducted from the street or from the hospital.

The demonstration was violently dispersed after a group of youngsters attacked the building with the Central Election Commission and the parliament. There are no lists of those detained.

Journalists argue that the attack was a stage-managed government provocation in order trigger detentions. Probably, not. But some candidates were beaten and taken to the KGB detention centre before the attack on the government building.

Some official numbers:  More than 90% turnout, almost 80% supported Lukashenka and 14% was shared by the rest of the candidates.

Some more big numbers: 5 ex-candidates and several prominent opposition activists are still under arrest. They might be penalised for the organisation of mass riots (up to 15 years), but nothing is yet clear.

Meanwhile on Tuesday (21 December) searches and detentions went on.

Why would months of  “democracy” end up so abruptly? The protest potential and the cold wouldn’t keep Belarusians in the city centre too long. The demonstrations on the following evenings gather dozens people, no thousands. The police violence was excessive and rather pre-emptive than anything else.

The advantage of the authorities is their pro-active stand. Oposition leaders didn’t have any plan, they were undecided and disagreed whether to stay in the square or move to the Election Committee. And what to do there.

Even more so, the opposition knew that provocations were prepared but never took means of precaution to protect the action and the people who dared to join it.

President Lukashenka called a rather negative OSCE assessment a huge step forward. He pointed out that “too much of this stupid democracy is over” and he won’t let “tear the counrty into pieces“. He promised to publish within a week information on the operation of opposition parties and NGOs and the backstage data on their financial sources.

Journalists will also be made fully responsible for every word they write, he said. The election-time heyday of free and easy reporting is over.

Lukashenka remarked that it’s not manly for people to complain that they have been beaten up: “You want to be a president? You have to bear it!”

The president-elect now has compelling problems to tackle, such as foreign debt, the export deficit, urgent demand for economic modernisation.

The country needs money. EU ministers coming to Minsk before elections have talked about €3 billion for projects and reforms in future. Russia’s conditions for $4 billion dollars in indirect aid are unclear but the offer seems to have been snapped up by Minsk as both sides are very optimistic about the oil and gas deliveries.

Was one of the conditions sending a clear signal to the opposition via the use of police batons?

Russian Dmitry Medvedev voiced hope that as a result of the elections Belarus will continue to develop its state on the basis of democracy and friendship with its neighbours (!).

The EU seems perplexed and for a reason. It’s yet to be seen if this will influence relations between Brussels and Minsk. But so far the reaction from the neighbouring EU capitals was very moderate.

Me, I am pretty frustrated… Another election, another democratic flop… My hope is  that every exit is an entrance to somewhere else.

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Postmodern Dictatorship of Europe

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on December 17, 2010

You can hardly believe your eyes as you watch the Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka on TV sort-of-dancing to the punk hit that was intended as political satire: “Sanya [a very informal way to address Alyaksandr] will stay with us, he will stay with us and everything will be OK.”

For weeks it’s played several times a day on the radio, appeared on TV and has a video. Now the song is also visually associated with the president and his electoral campaign. Is there such a thing as bad PR?

Belarus on the eve of presidential elections on 19 December is a postmodernist world. On the internet, observers tot up irregularities in the early voting that started on 14 December, for e.g. that officials, students and employees of state-owned companies are made to vote early. On TV, Lukashenka demands democracy and says forced early voting is inadmissible. He jokes that he has become too democratic and his colleagues won’t understand him.

And in real life? People generally are planning not to show up to vote because they believe they already know the outcome of this little game.

A lot of first-evers and big numbers: 10 registered candidates; just one quarter of one percent of members of electoral committees who are opposition-linked; 400 accredited foreign journalists; a European scandal (on cruelty to animals); a car crash with one candidate (no harm done); a lot of peaceful demonstrations (not dispersed); meetings of candidates with voters all around the country (not prevented).

Yes, even first-ever live TV debates, but without the incumbent President. Meanwhile, as the expert counted, coverage of his activities on TV outweighs that of his nine opponents by a ratio of more than 1,000:1.

British actor Jude Law together with opposition leaders have invited Belarusians to a rally after polling stations close on the big day. As usual, the authorities have accused Lukashenka’s rivals of plotting violence and have promised to prevent it. Media reported of dozens of assorted military machines and water cannons (it’s -15C now!) moving into position in Minsk.

The President has stated that Belarus used up its quota of revolutions last century. He expects the cold weather to cool the ardour of protesters even as he promises to protect them.

According to media reports, the Lithuanian president sees the victory of Alyaksandr Lukashenka as a safeguard for the stability of Belarus and against Russian influence. Nobody wants Russia or a “second Russia” as a neighbour, Dalia Grybauskaite was quoted as saying.

Dalia, Sanya will stay with us, don’t worry.

Worried seemed to be Russian Prime Minister Putin. Yesterday (16 December) he counted the costs of Belarusian friendship: Russia annually loses $3 billion in revenues due to duty-free gas deliveries to Belarus; oil duty abolition will bring Belarus $4 billion in extra revenues in 2011. What he ‘forgot’ to mention is the Customs (!) Union (!!) of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan that Moscow is trying to push an unwilling Minsk towards.

Apropos of Russia. WikiLeaks text on Belarus reveals that the US allegedly won’t compromise its principles (regarding criticism of Belarus’ human rights record for e.g.) in the name of better relations with Moscow. The EU is said to be looking into possible support Belarus worth two to three billion dollars.

None of this will be decisive. The important thing is that the people are generally satisfied with their uninformed lives and moderate wages. They are all part of the system created by Lukashenka, a system which still works well enough to make the pain of transition, transformation and liberalisation unnecessary and offers no alternatives.

The last dictatorship of Europe? Belarus? Noooo! We are the best dictatorship in Europe.

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The Art of Impossible

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on November 1, 2010

Everything is possible, the impossible just takes a little longer. As a Belarusian I can say it again: the impossible is possible.

The upcoming presidential election in Belarus shows how different things might be. Two months before the 19 December vote, activists under the white-red-white opposition flags peacefully collected signatures in the vicinity of the Presidential administration. As a result, 11 (wow, 11! usually three or four) hopefuls have announced that they have raised the necessary 100,000 signatures to be registered as candidates. We will see how many will actually get through the registration formalities.

It was highly visible in Minsk how Belarusians actively signed up for the opposition candidates – giving over their passport details without any apparent fear. Of course, most of the hopefuls are completely unknown to the wider public. They got the signatures primarily on the grounds that they are an alternative to the 16-years-in-office president.

Having collected more than enough signatures for himself within the first few days, President Lukashenka asked people to sign up for the other hopefuls as well – to give them a chance, he said. This could also help explain why they got so many singatures.

Belarusians are not overly passionate or desperate people. They are rational and pragmatic. Due to the situation in the country and the sad state of political culture following years of Soviet regime, apart from the president there aren’t many politicians who are actually that well known. Only the President is genuinely popular. One can’t really expect that an opposition candidate will get a lot more than five or seven percent of the vote and that crowds will take to the streets to celebrate his endeavour.

It’s the economic crisis and the crisis in relations with Russia that is pushing Minsk in the direction of more democracy and making people look for an alternative.

Minsk is aiming to show the EU that it shares common values and merits increased economic and financial co-operation. That’s why the elections should be as free and transparent as possible. And indeed, nothing is impossible.

Recent development shows that Brussels is willing to put up with the re-election of the Belarusian President and with a vote which has basic credibility, even if it is not spotless. It should already be quite satisfied with the free signature campaign and the plurality of the candidates.

On 2 November, the German and Polish FMs, Westerwelle and Sikorski, will be in Minsk to campaign for democratic elections (“Yes, you can!”). This was difficult to imagine some years ago, now it’s possible. Lukashenka will probably even shake hands with a gay minister!

Meanwhile, it’s Moscow which is indirectly influencing the electoral campaign, far more than the West ever could. Kremlin boss Medvedev has even commented in his podcast on the stagnation of what were once considered brotherly ties. Recently he coldly told journalists that he doesn’t expect anything good from the elections in Belarus in December, but corrected himself, adding that he was joking. In return, Lukashenka and the opposition hopefuls compete on who is more nationalistic and more anti-Russian.

Belarusians authorities need to be careful when opening the Pandora’s Box of rights and values, however. Controlled democracy and increased co-operation with the West has the potential to undermine the old system. As the example of Moldova shows, today you take up European values and tomorrow you will have a new government, and the day after tomorrow another one.

We have yet to see, how much stability Belarusian people want.

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Love Your Choice

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on September 20, 2010

So be it: 19 December 2010. The Presidential election in Belarus won’t bring any surprises anyway.

The election will take place before Belarus and Russia agree on new gas prices, which could rise from the current $185 per thousand cubic metres to $250 and threaten Belarus’ social stability.

The authorities have said already that the vote will fully comply with national laws.

Minsk promises to invite the maximum amount of foreign observers. The OSCE/ODIHR mission will be more interested to see if it complies with international standards. In the past, they have always said Belarus’ elections fail to meet democratic norms. Interestingly, their CIS observer mission colleagues from former Soviet countries have always said the opposite.

The upcoming campaign will be different – this time Minsk cannot rely on silent approbation from Moscow. Russian diplomats in the OSCE and CIS missions might work together to make the two reports more similar. But would Moscow favour a more positive OSCE verdict or a more negative CIS one than usual?

The information war between Minsk and the Kremlin is plain to see. But not what lies behind it. Belarusian experts say Russia has no strategy for the Belarus election and will not try to topple Lukashenka. It’s unlikely that Russia would like to sponsor a revolution of any colour in Belarus. It might want to make the Belarusian leader as nervous as possible ahead of the hydrocarbon price talks, however.

This time Lukashenka won’t be able to beat Belarus most famous pro-EU opposition leader Alyaksandr Milinkevich. That’s because Milinkevich announced that he won’t run.

Milinkevich, Europe’s darling, the united opposition candidate, got 20 percent of the vote in 2006, as far as we know. He says he is not taking part in the new elections because they are not elections. He won’t take part in a play, he says, where the director, the playwright and the actor are all one and the same. In his name you see Europe giving up.

The opposition, recently again labelled the “enemies of the people” by Lukashenka, has no common candidate in 2010. There could be up to a dozen pro-democratic romantics keen to be President and several of them running against Lukashenka, and each other, in the final sprint.

There is nothing to indicate that the incumbent will not be re-elected.

The most interesting part will come after elections anyway.

Choose thy love. And love thy choice.

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What’s in a Date?

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on September 2, 2010

It’s fun to be President of Belarus! You can never get bored. Nor can people around you.

Some countries rename themselves in the hope of a brighter future. Some governments rename their security services in the hope they will perform better.  Some presidents rename the days of weeks or months.

Belarus is different. We are practical.

Suddenly, two of the longest avenues in Minsk had their names changed without any public debate. WWII veterans wrote to the President saying they want the now-so-called Independence and Victors avenues to be named after their achievements rather than after a Belarusian enlightenment publisher and a popular, post-war Soviet politician.

There have been laws in Belarus to rename newspapers as non-governmental ones can not use the adjective “Belarusian” in their name.

On 1 September new norms of Belarusian language came into force. One of them says the word “President” should always be capitalised. It adds to the regulation that this word in Belarus should be used only for the highest political rank.

The latest news is that the President’s birth date has been changed. No, it’s nothing radical, just the small matter of having it one day later. On 30 August protocol departments in foreign ministries around the world sent their birthday greetings to Alyaksandr Lukashenka. But next year he is to get the congrats on 31 August instead. It wasn’t officially announced, but his official biography has been officially altered.

lThe President’s new birthday now coincides with the birthday of his youngest 6-year-old son, Mikalay, a.k.a. Kolya. They rarely part and are often seen together not just in Minsk but also abroad, even during top-level political negotiations and protocol dinners.

Why change? As the official story goes, the actual date of the Belarusian leader’s birth is and has always been 31 August 1954. The President had never before paid any special attention to his birthday. But after the birth of Mikalay he started to ask his mother for the details of his own birth. And so he found out that, rather than arriving into this world on 30 August, he was in fact born in the early hours of the following day. Why not just change it? Especially since now father and son can celebrate together? You can’t move the son’s birthday back one day, because his birth date is pretty certain.

To change the very day of one’s birth is not such a big deal, I would say. Especially for a President.

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SOS

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on August 21, 2010

You could pretty well imagine how it feels today to be a Belarusian.

Think of your influential neighbouring country, one that is very close culturally as well as politically. After a government green light, the media starts a propaganda campaign against your president, who has always been its friend. According to the reports he is corrupt and authoritarian, controlling cash flows and killing his challengers.

This campaign to oust him has to do neither with investigative journalism nor with the sleaze itself. It’s just a means to discredit a head of state. The two governments are all too close and in fact pretty similar – telling the entire story behind its previous support could be far too revealing for the accusing side.

The neighbouring leadership has even threatened to publish a transcript of talks behind the closed doors, where other presidents were present. That’s an unacceptable step in terms of diplomacy and international relations. But your mighty neighbour doesn’t care.

And it’s not very pleasant, whatever your attitude to your president.

After the recent gas and media wars between Belarus and Russia, sociologists speak of a new geopolitical trend. Since May 2004 and EU enlargement the number of pro-Russian Belarusians is bigger than that of the pro-European side. For the first time after six years the statistics balance out again, heralding the comeback of traditional, bivectoral geopolitical preferences.

It shows that you can hardly beat Lukashenka on his own territory. Even if you are Russia. Belarusians watch filtered Russian TV and have only a few of Russian newspapers to buy. The majority of those who find Russian reports on the Internet are too critical and too knowledgeable to believe the recent TV documentary series and the reports describing Lukashenka on his knees, in despair, being ready to beg for forgiveness and to recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia within a matter of hours. This campaign is aimed at the Russians. And at Monsieur Lukashenka, of course.

Strange as it may seem, the people of Belarus are uniting around Lukashenka, as he is the guarantor of the country’s independence. Even nationalists see the Kremlin as a far more awful evil than the president, whom they have gotten used to anyhow.

The trying-to-be-impartial Western media views Belarus with Russian eyes. Foreign correspondents in Moscow report on the defeated Lukashenka, saying, between the lines, “it serves him right.”

Sorry, but have you thought about the consequences? Do you believe, dear Western colleagues, that Russia is thinking of getting rid of Lukashenka (even if only in the long run) in order to foster democratisation in Belarus? If Russia comes, we’ll have even more Russia, not human rights.

The question is, what is the Kremlin’s plan – especially for the upcoming Belarusian presidential election? Russia can’t put forward a candidate, it has no political influence on the structures of power in Belarus. Experts worry what may happen if Russia doesn’t recognise the results of the elections and the West is forced to follow suit. The whole nation, not just the leadership, will be ousted and isolated.

And, as you look back, unlike the case of Ukraine or Georgia, there’s neither Brussels nor Washington, absolutely nobody behind you.

Scary, isn’t it?

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10 Things Uniting Scots and Belarusians

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on August 6, 2010

Having visited Belarus, my wonderful friends from Scotland listed 10 commonalities between Belarusians and Scots:

- both countries are overshadowed by their neighbour;

- both countries have taken on the language of their neighbour – English instead of Gaelic, Russian vs. Belarusian;

- whilst both countries are small, nations’ sons and daughters have made large impacts on the world: Scots (John Logie Baird, Sir Alexander Fleming, Robert Burns) and Belarusians;

- both countries have war memorials in unusual places;

- often the first questions that Scots and Belarusians ask visitors to their country are “what do you think of the place?” and “Why come here?”. Is this a reflection of the absence of arrogance and lack of confidence? As Rabbie Burns would say: To see ourselves as others see us;

- within the same breath Belarusians and Scots can criticise their motherland and then defend it to the hilt;

- the people from both nations are renowned for their generosity;

- at first meeting there may be a reluctance to engage, however after a session drinking a local spirit (vodka/ whisky) you have a friend for life;

- both countries have a fantastic ability to roll r’s!;

- both countries have incredibly tame squirrels in the parks (surprise, surprise, Belarusian squirrels are red).

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Status Quack

Posted by Maryna Rakhlei in EU on July 26, 2010

And still I am not impressed. A media war between Russia and Belarus? It was to be expected after years of a “gas for kisses” policy and recent milk, sugar and hydrocarbonate border battles. At least now Minsk’s rhetoric is very clear: Belarusian foreign interests are purely economic, be it a brotherly neighbour or a God-given neighbour.

Of course, it’s not every day that Russian TV shows hastily prepared documentaries accusing the head of the neighbouring country of being affiliated to the forced disappearances of political opponents – in 1999-2000. It seems the Russian leadership doesn’t have (or doesn’t want to reveal?) any sleaze on Lukashenka.

By playing so openly, Moscow is putting up the ‘Love Over’ sign and exerting pressure before presidential elections in Belarus, pushing for more loyalty.

But you can’t beat Belarusian state media in Belarus.

The Russian documentaries weren’t shown in Belarus at all, first hand. As an immediate reaction there was an interview (very poorly prepared as well) with the Georgian president. This gave Saakashvili a chance to criticise the Kremlin and mock its politics. Soon afterwards there was an interview with another Russian ‘favourite’: Latvian president Valdis Zatlers. He didn’t talk about Russia, but praised the EU and was hopeful about the fruit of the EU’s Eastern Partnership, in which Belarus participates.

The power of the state controlled Belarusian TV channels is amazing: the masses tend to use quotes from the repeatedly aired news reports without noticing it. As a result, people believe that Russia deviously turned its back on Belarus and EU Commissioner Fuele visiting Minsk never raised the question of human rights as Lukashenka said. Russian reports are seen as propaganda and Fuele’s repudiation couldn’t possibly have a wide outreach.

It’s all because the Kremlin wants to topple Lukashenka, Western media reports. Sorry? Topple who? And to get who? If it’s true, it could only be a very long-term goal. Belarusians barely recognise cabinet members. To say nothing of political leaders or businessmen. Everything begins and ends with the same and only person. TV news is Soviet style – “all about Lukashenka and the weather forecast.” If Lukashenka goes, the whole system will have to be rebuilt – and that means towards a demonstrably democratic style.

As with any neighbour Belarusian stereotypes about Russia are clearly divided: Russian culture, Russian people, Russian leadership. For example: the Belarusian private sector is very positive about the EU. People prefer fair play and steady business rather than the Russian “clique is always right” style and rule by the strong.

The EU is also a very attractive destination for education. Amazingly, after all these years of abstention, Lukashenka has tasked the government with starting the procedure of making Belarus a participating country in the Bologna Process.

Belarusian future development and economic benefits are now contrasted with Moscow’s potential economic pressure and the EU’s diplomatic pressure. The choice is pretty limited: a more or less pro-Western or pro-Russian Lukashenka. Still not a zero sum game.

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