It still came as a surprise. Minsk was expected to look forward to getting an invitation from neighbouring Lithuania to join the celebration of the 20th anniversary of its declaration of independence on March 11. Having received it, Minsk sent its regrets, Lukashenka didn’t go.

Lithuania announced that the decision (to invite or not to invite its awkward neighbour) would be based on how Belarusian authorities react to requests to question General Uskhopchyk over his role in Soviet troops’ violent actions in Vilnius in January 1991.

Minsk didn’t hurry to react but finally questioned the notorious general. As soon as Vilnius got the documents, Lukashenka received the invitation.

The decision of the Belarusian ruler not to go might not be as unexpected as it seems. BY rejecting the invitation, Minsk demonstrated loyalty to Russian President Medvedev, who declined to come months ago and who needs such symbolic gestures.

Belarusian authorities also like to be pragmatic. Probably their goal was the invitation, not the trip. Lukashenka met his Lithuanian counterpart in Vilnius during a breakthrough visit in September 2009. Was there a need to meet up again?

Analysts point out the parallel with the Eastern Partnership inauguration conference in Prague in May 2009. Back then Brussels was said to have invited Lukashenka on the condition that he would decline. Since then nothing has really changed with EU-Belarus relations. Both sides act cautiously.