Posts Tagged candidates programmes

According to the Ukrainian constitution, foreign policy is the President’s prerogative. The attitude of the candidates to the further integration of Ukraine with the EU is therefore of core importance. It is the key question for the country’s future because European integration means much more than just foreign policy: It also means the prospects for the internal transformation of the country.

 The candidates’ stand on Ukraine-EU integration is a major indicator of where they want to take the country in the coming years. It may seem like a categorical statement, but given the tough present-day conditions in Ukraine, any deviations, substitutions or alternatives from the EU reform agenda mean that the candidate is not serious about taking the country forward.

 The election programmes of the main candidates describe their ideas on Ukraine-EU integration as follows:

As we can see, Ukraine’s accession to the EU is set as the unconditional goal of Ukrainian foreign policy only in the programme of Viktor Yuschenko. The other candidates either overlook the subject (Lytvyn and Grytsenko), invent unrealistic alternatives (Yatsenyuk), or put conditions on the country’s integration (Tymoshenko and Yanukovych).

The conditions are so vague and can be interpreted so broadly that they would allow (in case of a win) either of the two latter candidates to direct foreign and domestic policy in any way they think fit. Their policies may end up matching their personal interests, but not the interests of the country. As a result, there is no guarantee that Ukraine will presume its European course, if one of the two main candidates wins the presidency.   

 What are the interests of the international actors?

 One new aspect of these elections is the sharp decline in the US factor. It is difficult to define the US approach to the forthcoming elections, if, indeed, there is one. And this is no wonder, given the drop in US interest in eastern European affairs as a whole.

 As a result, the EU and Russia have come to the forefront as international players in the 17 January poll.

 Russia has fundamentally changed its approach to the Ukrainian elections. Trying to avoid the mistakes of 2004, Russia is not openly supporting any of the candidates. Instead it has announced a sort of “tender” for the kind of Ukrainian president who will best protect Russian interests. These interests have remained quite stable, but Russia has defined them in more detail and taken a tougher line on them in the past two years. They include:

 -          Guarantee of military-political loyalty of Ukraine, including military neutrality and commitment of non-accession to NATO. Growing opposition of Russia to EU enlargement  has become another trend of the passing year;

-          Guarantee of the economic interests of Russian business in Ukraine;

-          The Black Sea Fleet must stay on Ukrainian soil after the agreed term of its redeployment from the Crimea in 2017;

-          Access to the Ukrainian gas transportation system on the basis of ownership or rental;

-          Guarantee of stable status for the Russian language;

-          Guarantee of the rights of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) in Ukraine (ROC revenues in Ukraine make up nearly half of the total ROC budget).

 The European Union has generally not changed its approach to the Ukrainian elections: Its main demand is that the elections are democratic and free and that a legitimate president wins. Over the years, the EU has consistently put forward demands for the country as a whole, rather than  for its president. The EU wants Ukraine and its future leadership to:

 -          Stabilise the political system and implement the required constitutional reform;

-          Enhance the effectiveness and transparency of state machinery, in order to implement far-reaching reforms throughout the country;

-          Defeat corruption;

-          Improve the investment climate.

 Russia and the EU have two fundamentally different objectives. The former wants to drag Ukraine into the past. The latter wants to push it into the future.

 It’s up to Ukrainians to choose…