Archive for the ‘Russia’ Category
Germany’s new Ostpolitik (again)?
Posted by: Nicu Popescu in China, Europe (un)divided, Russia, Ukraine, trips on December 10th, 2009
(with updates)… I have just returned from Germany from a joint ECFR-Bertelsman event on the “Eastern partnership or Partnership with Russia”. Of course, the answer is with both. No need to spend time on this. But I got a certain sense that the German debate on Russia and the Eastern neighbourhood might be changing. Of course this is only a snapshot and such trends are far from consolidated. And they have yet to trickle down through the German foreign policy machinery, not least in the Brussels committees. But here are some of the interesting nuances I have heard in my convesrsations with a few experts as well as FDP and CDU (the new coalition partners) voices.
On Ukraine
There might be an increasing sense that Ukraine, Moldova, and perhaps Belarus will “of course” join the EU. Though with two caveats: 1) in the long run (defined as 20-30 years), and 2) “this should happen at our own pace, not due to geopolitical considerations”. The language is still more positive than I ever heard in Germany.
Much has been made about the fact that FDP’s election manifesto mentions an EU accession perspective for Ukraine. The Ukrainian foreign minister Poroshenko even says the new German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle (and FDP leader) gave him such a manifesto with the word “Ukraine” underlined and Westerwelle’s signature next to it. I tended not to overdo the importance of this point in the manfesto. But my FDP interlocutor stressed that the Ukraine point in the manifesto was thought through, discussed and “voted twice in an electoral year by the party convention, and this is not a backdoor policy paper, but a key document”. Read the rest of this entry »
Russia’s Chinese neighbourhood
Posted by: Nicu Popescu in EU, Europe (un)divided, Russia on December 7th, 2009
I recently spoke at the Sino-European forum co-organised by ECFR/Centre Asie and CICIR about the EU-Russia-China triangle. While thinking about the non-existent triangle I ran into the proceedings of another ‘strategic dialogue’ – between Russia and China. And the following exchange of views on Russia’s desire for a sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space caught my eye. One of the Russian participants (Alexey Arbatov) asked the following question (page 19):
“A certain part of Russian political elite thinks that our central objective should be the re-establishment of the Soviet Union in this or that form, the establishment of uncontested Russian domination in the post-Soviet space. This is not what the leadership thinks, but in political circles, the media, in political parties, and the parliament such a desire is very strong… My question is what is [your country’s] attitude to such a policy line? Would your attitude towards such a foreign policy direction be positive of negative?
The reply: “We understand that Russia has special interests in this space, and that Russia tries to preserve its influence, but only if this takes the form of a civilisational community, because these states are still independent states… Russia should treat these states as independent states from a legal point of view, and from the point of view of international norms.” Read the rest of this entry »
A Swedish-led listening tour of the East
Posted by: Nicu Popescu in EU, Eastern partnership, Europe (un)divided, Moldova, Russia, South Caucasus on June 22nd, 2009
The Swedish EU presidency, which starts on 1 July 2009, is getting a lot of advice on what to do during its presidency. But here is one idea more idea for the Swedish EU presidency (contained in our recent ECFR report on the Eastern neighbourhood). The Swedish Presidency should convene a “listening tour” of the Eastern neighbourhood – a Troika visit by the Swedish foreign minister, Javier Solana, the Commissioner for External Relations, and the future Spanish EU presidency to each of the six Eastern neighbours of the EU: Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia). Here is why such a tour is needed and why the Swedish presidency is the best actor to initiate it.
To begin with, the Eastern Partnership summit in Prague, judged by its attendance list, was a near-failure. If the objective of the Eastern partnership was to relaunch the neighbourhood policy and raise its political profile, its start was not impressive. The Swedish presidency-led “listening tour” would help relaunch politically the neighbourhood policy in the East. It would repair some of the political damage done by the unimpressive Eastern partnership summit in May 2009. But the purpose of such a tour should not only be symbolic. Read the rest of this entry »
Ikea and the Abkhaz paradox
Posted by: Nicu Popescu in Russia, South Caucasus, secessionist conflicts, trips on June 15th, 2009
As promissed, more impressions from my recent trip to Sukhumi. In Abkhazia, the economic imperative of rebuilding the region and attracting investments (predominantly Russian) clashes with its political project of staying more or less independent. Abkhazia might face the following paradox: until August 2008 Abkhazia was de facto independent but unrecognised; now it is recognised (by Russia and Nicaragua only), but not de facto independent anymore. The closure of the UNOMIG mission (anounced today) will also leave Abkhazia more internationally isolated than ever before.
Compared to my previous visit there in March 2006, now Sukhumi was livelier. There are more renovated buildings, more expensive cars, more people on the promenade by the sea, and the cafés are fuller. This is both a sign of some economic progress, but also the fact that summer is always livelier than the rest of the year (because of the tourists).
In the hotel I stayed (Ritsa) – very central and right by the sea – there were three wi-fi networks in the range of my laptop. The local GSM operator “Aquaphone” boasts with its 3G network. On one of the formerly abandoned piers in Sukhumi – a café was opened that serves sushi (and where the local authorities took Solana and Lavrov on their recent visits to Abkhazia). I even saw a yellow Hummer (!) (I also saw another one in Tbilisi –apparently that is trendy). A recent spat between the Georgian government and Benetton is also telling. Read the rest of this entry »
Georgia-Ossetia: fragile frontline
Posted by: Nicu Popescu in Russia, South Caucasus, secessionist conflicts, trips on March 19th, 2009
I just returned from Georgia, where I managed to get to the Georgian-Ossetian/Russian frontline. Peace is incredibly fragile there. Nothing separates the Georgian military police from the Russian and Ossetian troops. No peacekeepers, no natural barriers, and no man-made fortifications. Just a few checkpoints and small sandbag fortifications. The checkpoints of the two conflict parties in Ergneti are just a hundred meters from each other. And nothing else.
Tskhinvali today. Photo taken from Nikozi, some 300 metres south-west of Tskhinvali.
The relative calm rests almost exclusively on the lack of any (current) interest for renewed hostilities from either Russia or Georgia. Russia has a military victory in its pocket, and an economic crisis on its hands. Georgia is deterred by Russia’s military presence. The EU Monitoring Mission might have some psychologically restraining effects on the conflict sides. But here is little else that would prevent renewed hostilities should any of the parties become interested in stirring them. And they might be. If not now, then in the future. If not by Russia and Georgia, then by South Ossetia. Read the rest of this entry »
Medvedev skiing
Posted by: Nicu Popescu in Russia, South Caucasus on March 16th, 2009
Since this is a blog, not a collection or articles, it is sometimes fun to discuss not-so-serious things about the Eastern neighbourhood. The Eastern neighbourhood is not just about wars and gas crises. There are quite a number of fun things to do there, such as skiing…
Once elected – the young, modern and (supposedly more) liberal president Medvedev thought it appropriate to launch a video-blog – a modern way of conveying his message. My favourite video-blog is Medvedev skiing in Krasnaya Polyana (in the Caucasus mountains), where the Sochi 2014 Olympics will take place. Probably the weirdest thing about this blog was that it appeared in the middle of the January 2009 Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis, and Medvedev was talking about the necessity of investing in sport. It looked like Putin was in charge of the gas crisis, while Medvedev was in charge of education and sports. (For those who want a fresher video – here is Medvedev’s most recent video-blog.) Read the rest of this entry »
Ukraine’s collapse
Posted by: Nicu Popescu in Russia, Ukraine, economic crisis on February 27th, 2009
Ukraine’s economic crisis could have profound (geo)political consequences for European security. A default in Ukraine could lead to higher unemployment, a drastic fall in governance standards, a rise in emigration, organised crime, and an even deeper political crisis. Or these might happen even without a formal default, but with a seriously ill economy for the next few years. A failed economy in Ukraine will hit hard Belarus and Moldova (and Transnistria) putting under strain all of EU’s immediate Eastern neighbours. It will also affect some EU member states, including Austria whose banks have lend heavily in Ukraine. Any of these developments will affect the EU and could lead to a significant throw back to its anyway-unimpressive European neighbourhood policy.
Ukraine might be about to collapse economically. It is unable to meet the conditions of the International Monetary Fund to qualify for a USD 16 billion bail-out. Because it will face presidential elections in a year from now – a divided government in Ukraine is not able to meet the IMF’s condition on cutting (to zero) the budget deficit. Ukraine’s political mess was sustainable in times of economic growth, but not during the global economic crisis.
A failed economy is not yet a failed state. But the big question is what will Russia do. Read the rest of this entry »
Russia’s neighbourhood policy in times of crisis
Posted by: Nicu Popescu in Russia, economic crisis on February 25th, 2009
For the last two months, at every single conference I have been to, I saw experts or officials who start to be dismissive about Russia again. Many start assuming that after a few years of powerful and assertive foreign policy, Russia will again turn into a weaker and more compliant partner for the EU. A bit like in the 90s. With a fall of some 80%, Russia’s stock market was one of the worst hit in the world (worse than US, EU, China, Brazil, India and you name it); its total external debt is now bigger than its financial reserves; its pipeline ambitions and shopping spree of European assets undermined by lack of access to credits from Western banks. All this will undoubtedly affect Russian foreign policy, and it will change the rules of the game in the shared neighbourhood that comprises Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and the South Caucasus states. Read the rest of this entry »
Is the EU a mistake of history?
Posted by: Nicu Popescu in Europe (un)divided, Russia on February 16th, 2009
The EU likes to think of itself as post-modern. The superior embodiment of soft-power and post-national politics, where interdependence and the pooling of sovereignty makes it possible to move beyond decades and centuries of animosities, conflicts, and narrow state interests. The EU clearly achieved that. But the bigger question is whether the EU as an experiment is indeed a qualitative change of international politics that will affect the course of history, or just a temporary experiment.
Many Russians I spoke to think the EU is only a temporary phenomenon. L’exception qui fait la règle. When this experiment will fail, everything will return to “normal”: power politics, “concert of europe”-style diplomacy, inequality of states, spheres of influence, and interests, not values, as the driving forces behind international politics. Their relations with many EU member states only reinforce this belief.
I also assume that such scepticism is quite wide-spread throughout the world. The EU as a project has to unconfirm history. I am sure the EU, as such, is a temporary phenomenon. It will dissapear – in 50 or 300 years. The bigger question is whether the “EU way of doing things”, its “post-modernity” as a successful experiment will survive, be exported to other regions and change international politics as we knew it. Will EU’s post-modernity survive beyond the EU, a bit like ancient greek philosophy, or roman law survived ancient greece and the roman empire. No one knows whether the EU will change the course of history and the way international politics will be done in the future, but we better realise it is an uphill struggle.
