Archive for category EU

Is soft power freeriding?

Posted by Nicu Popescu in EU, Europe (un)divided on January 20, 2011

The EU is proud that it is a ‘soft power’ (when you make others what you want through attraction, rather than coercion). It also thinks this is the most sophisticated and benefic way to exercise power (‘post-modern’ in other words). It might be true, but seen from the outside the logic of soft power might not be that appealing for others. In fact if you sit in Dushanbe, Caracas or Karachi why would you care for someone’s soft power?

Basically the logic of soft power is the following: ‘I am attractive, prosperous, nice, friendly, make good movies, have good schools etc and that is others you should do and want what I want’. This is a bit of a free-ride. Firts of all, soft power is not even designed as a foreign policy tool or an instrument of power. It is simply a useful potential side-effect of (EU and US, mainly) politicians responding to their voters’ needs. And one can be both attractive, and irrelevant in international politics. Read the rest of this entry »

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Back to blogging

Posted by Nicu Popescu in EU on January 10, 2011

After a year-long break, I am back to blogging at EU Observer. Before I start blogging properly – here is a quick update on my whereabouts in 2010. The last year from January to December I worked as advisor to the Moldovan prime-minister on foreign policy and European integration. I dealt with pretty much everything that is foreign policy (speeches, articles, visits, lines to take, and, routine crisis-management) and a lot of domestic policy stuff which is relevant for European integration (and this can be pretty much anything since European integration, as we all know, is done at home). Among these have been: some of the necessary reforms anticipating the launch of a dialogue on visa-free with the EU (biometric passports, integrated border management, monitoring migration flows along the Nistru river and security of documents), liberalisation of air transport between the EU and Moldova (and accession to the European Common Aviation Area), some reforms in the migration and asylum system, keeping an eye on the EU High-Level Advisory Group to Moldova, and many other things.

It was an exciting year. Moldova had no president (failed to be elected in late 2009 by the parliament), a parliament waiting to be dissolved, a four-party coalition government, a constitutional crisis, a failed referendum in September, early elections in late-November, an economic crisis on its hands and lots of other challenges. An East-European mess at its best. But the country still has somehow emerged as the main (if not only) success story of the European neighbourhood policy in the east. In 2010 it was the only Eastern neighbour where political pluralism and democracy strengthened and EU-inspired reforms were the driving force of many of the government’s efforts. Later this week a new government of the same coalition and the same prime-minister, Vlad Filat, should be announced.

In the meantime I also managed to finally publish my book on EU foreign policy and the post-Soviet conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh. It basically seeks to explain why, when and how the EU intervenes or fails to intervene in conflict-settlement efforts. The failure to intervene is an important part of the story. Martti Ahtisaari generously agreed to write the foreword of the book and here are some other endorsements and the synopsis… Read the rest of this entry »

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Of euro-pessimism and failures

Posted by Nicu Popescu in EU, Europe (un)divided on December 15, 2009

It is not difficult to be depressed about the EU these days. A recent re-read of the Laeken declaration that set in motion the whole European Convention, the Constitutional and Lisbon Treaties exercises just made me think (more) how far is EU’s current state (and institutional basis) from the stated ambitions of 2001. Here us a useful reminder of the spirit of the declaration:

“What is Europe’s role in this changed world? Does Europe not, now that is finally unified, have a leading role to play in a new world order, that of a power able both to play a stabilising role worldwide and to point the way ahead for many countries and peoples? Europe as the continent of humane values, the Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights, the French Revolution and the fall of the Berlin Wall… The European Union’s one boundary is democracy and human rights…  Europe needs to shoulder its responsibilities in the governance of globalisation. The role it has to play is that of a power resolutely doing battle against all violence, all terror and all fanaticism… In short, a power wanting to change the course of world affairs.”

The truth is that throughout most of its existence the EU was as frustrating and depressive for its supporters as is it now. And yet, it still is the single most successful international organisation in history. So how do we balance euro-pessimism and optimism, history and future, success and failure, analysis and wishful thinking? Read the rest of this entry »

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Russia’s Chinese neighbourhood

Posted by Nicu Popescu in China, EU, Europe (un)divided, Russia on December 7, 2009

I recently spoke at the Sino-European forum co-organised by ECFR/Centre Asie and CICIR about the EU-Russia-China triangle. While thinking about the non-existent triangle I ran into the proceedings of another ‘strategic dialogue’ – between Russia and China. And the following exchange of views on Russia’s desire for a sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space caught my eye.  One of the Russian participants (Alexey Arbatov) asked the following question (page 19):
“A certain part of Russian political elite thinks that our central objective should be the re-establishment of the Soviet Union in this or that form, the establishment of uncontested Russian domination in the post-Soviet space. This is not what the leadership thinks, but in political circles, the media, in political parties, and the parliament such a desire is very strong… My question is what is [your country’s] attitude to such a policy line? Would your attitude towards such a foreign policy direction be positive of negative?

The reply: “We understand that Russia has special interests in this space, and that Russia tries to preserve its influence, but only if this takes the form of a civilisational community, because these states are still independent states… Russia should treat these states as independent states from a legal point of view, and from the point of view of international norms.” Read the rest of this entry »

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“Ukraine fatigue” vs “EU fatigue”

Posted by Nicu Popescu in EU on December 3, 2009

It might seem that EU-Ukraine relations are poised for a new start. The end of EU’s institutional crisis and the entry into force of Lisbon opens the way for the EU to move beyond its institutional reform into a great new era of outward-looking foreign policy. In a couple of months many expect that Ukraine will get a more stable (even though more centralised, perhaps) Tymoshenko administration. So, the hope goes, internal stabilisation in both Ukraine and the EU might open up new avenues for co-operation.

But there is also a fear that some underlying trends might be pointing in the opposite direction. IN the aftermath of the January gas crisis  a comment on EUObs by my fellow blogger from EU-Ukraine.blogspot.com spoke of the pro-European consensus in Ukraine (as well as the danger that it might fade). And now it seems Ukraine is growing increasingly frustrated with the EU. This is no big news and the feeling in the EU is mutual. There is “Ukraine fatigue” in the EU, but there is also “EU fatigue” in Ukraine. And this mutual fatigue augurs nothing good for any potential of a new start. Read the rest of this entry »

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A new ENP for the new Commission?

Posted by Nicu Popescu in Eastern partnership, EU on November 28, 2009

Behind the flow of depressive commentaries related to the appointments of Catherine Ashton and (less so) Herman van Rompuy, there are more EU foreign policy news coming – the announcement of the new Commission’s line-up. One interesting development is the merging of enlargement and neighbourhood portfolios under one Commissioner – Stefan Fule (Czech Republic). A couple of months ago I heard a murmur in Brussels saying that it is way too early to give the enlargement portfolio to a new member state. Apparently, it is not. (I also heard the Czechs would never get a substantial portfolio because of Klaus’ foot-dragging on Lisbon.)

More importantly, I never thought that enlargement-wary EU member states would ever accept the merging of the enlargement and neighbourhood portfolios under one commissioner (though formally, Barroso is in charge of the distribution of portfolios). For many in the EU this would send all the wrong signals to states like Ukraine and Moldova that want to join the EU. It is equally true that for many this would send all the right signals (as well as the right framework for approaching relations with the EU’s neighbours). I thought the EU needs a separate commissioner for the neighbourhood, but I did not think it was politically feasible to have a commissioner for “enlargement and neighbourhood”. I proved wrong. Read the rest of this entry »

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Russian and EU power of attraction

Posted by Nicu Popescu in EU, Moldova, Russia, South Caucasus, Ukraine on September 13, 2009

(MORE updates…) Here is an interesting opinion poll (Eurasia Monitor) where post-Soviet publics are asked whether they prefer integration into the EU, union of Russia/Belarus/Ukraine/Kazakhstan or independence without integration with any such entities. The results broadly confirm some of the findings from our recent ECFR report on Russian and European neighbourhood policies which argues that EU soft power in the region is not uncotested.

Among the more interesting results are (see page 35 of this opinion poll):

  • Georgia comes first in pro-EU sentiment  with 36% being in favour of integration with the EU. But it also comes first in pro-independence sentiment with 48% (not willing to join any integrationist blocks). Unsurprisingly only 3% want integration into a Russian-led Union. Read the rest of this entry »

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Russian views on EU’s decline

Posted by Nicu Popescu in EU, Europe (un)divided, Russia on August 25, 2009

(with updates)… I started this blog a few months ago with a post on “Is the EU a mistake of history?” where I argued that many, if not most, EU-watchers and policy makers in Russia think the EU is a temporary phenomenon after which Europe will return to power-politics among nations-states and ‘Concert of Europe’-style diplomacy. It is always useful to know what others think of the EU, and I will make sure to post views of the EU from the neighbourhood as well. Here is one more opinion from Russia (copy-pasted without changes):

  • “The European Union (EU) is growing weaker as an actor in foreign politics. The EU common foreign and security policy is still at its infancy because of the diverging interests of the European Union member states, and their reluctance to increase defense spending and shoulder responsibility for keeping up international peace and security. For this reason, the EU cannot be viewed as significant player in the world’s political and especially military-political arena”. Read the rest of this entry »

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The limits of EU’s transformative power

Posted by Nicu Popescu in Eastern partnership, EU, Europe (un)divided on July 23, 2009

For almost two decades the driving force of EU foreign policy was the idea of the EU as a transformative power. “Transformation” was achieved by enlarging the union and exporting its acquis, values and prosperity. The EU managed to successfully transform Central and Eastern Europe (though the business is still unfinished) and push the Balkans in the right direction. Then the EU tried to transform the Eastern neighbourhood through a similar policy mix of dialogue, economic assistance and exporting the acquis, though all in reduced doses.

But after 7 years the European neighbourhood policy the EU discovers that its policies are failing to even prevent the drastic deterioration of the situation in the Eastern neighbourhood. Even the fact that the EU tries to relaunch its neighbourhood policy on an almost annual basis (ENP Plus, New Ostpolitik, Black Sea Synergy and now the Eastern Partnership) is proof of a lingering dissatisfaction of how things stand. In the last years every single eastern neighbourhood country went through a series of major political, economic or security crises: Georgia cracked down on demonstrators in November 2007 and ran into a war with Russia in august 2008; post-electoral violence in March 2008 in Armenia left at least 10 persons dead; Moldova recent post-electoral protests lead to riots, the burning down of the parliament, and then a crackdown against the protesters Read the rest of this entry »

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The end of “de facto states”

Posted by Nicu Popescu in Eastern partnership, EU, secessionist conflicts, South Caucasus on July 13, 2009

For years the secessionist entities of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria have been refered to as “de facto states” and the conflicts around them – “frozen conflicts” (see previous posts on South Ossetia and Abkhazia). There has been a wide consensus that the term “frozen conflicts” is a misnomer. The conflicts have never been frozen, their settlement was. But the evolving realities of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are making the term “de facto states” also increasingly obsolete.

Scott Pegg launched the debate on de facto states with a book published over a decade ago. He referred mainly to North Cyprus, Taiwan, Somaliland, and Tamil Eelam. Dov Lynch took the debate into the post-Soviet space with his book on the “Engaging Eurasia’s Separatist States: Unresolved Conflicts and De Facto States”. The argument in both books is that secessionist regions which control a more or less well-defined territory, population and have a set of state-like institutions can be termed as “de facto states”. They are unrecognised, but de facto independent.

The truth is of course more complicated because most “de facto” states have always relied on various levels of external support to ensure their security and/or economic development (think of Taiwan, North Cyprus or Abkhazia). So the term has always been relative. Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria have outsourced a large chunk of their de facto independence to Russia: Read the rest of this entry »

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