I just co-authored a new ECFR report on Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia, some kind of a follow-up to the 2007 Power Audit of EU-Russia Relations. This new report deals with the impact of the economic crisis on Russian foreign policy and Moscow’s relations with China, US, the post-Soviet space and the EU. Among many other things the report argues that the EU is more united on Russia than it was a few years ago, less vulnerable to potential energy pressures, but that the EU is still underachieving in relations with Russia. The EU should stop treating Russia like a ‘small China’ and aim at more than trade-related objectives. The EU member states should better coordinate their bilateral Partnerships for Modernisation, and should also move as quickly as possible towards a visa-free regime with Russia (and EaP states), but even before, the EU that can drastically improve travel conditions through the adoption of an electronic visa system that would allow travellers who have already had a Schengen visa to get print-at-home visas.
The report has been endorsed by several foreign policy personalities in Europe. Here are some of the endorsements:
“This report is an important analysis of where Russia stands today and what opportunities this brings for the EU. It will open a much-needed and interesting debate.”
Javier Solana, former EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy; former Secretary General of NATO
“This report is extremely insightful both for its great analysis as well as policy recommendations proposed which touch upon both foreign, economic and energy policies. The report is indeed a real working agenda for the European Union.”
Massimo D’Alema, President, Italianieuropei Foundation; President, Foundation for European Progressive Studies; former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister
Sergei Guriev, Rector of the New Economic School, Moscow
“A well-researched and panoramic survey of the Russian regime’s stagnant, self-destructive and malignant approach at home and abroad. It is essential reading for anyone interested in Russia, and impatient for a more robust EU policy to its eastern neighbours.”
Edward Lucas, International Editor, The Economist
“This is a very timely study on a changed Russia facing stagnation and many unresolved problems under the renewed leadership of Vladimir Putin. It is time for the EU to develop a coherent strategy to engage a “post-crisis Russia” likely to act more soberly and pragmatically. The proposed options for a “pro-active EU policy on Russia” provide an excellent starting point for European policy-makers.”
Dr. Andreas Schockenhoff, Coordinator of German-Russian Inter-societal Cooperation of the German Federal Foreign Office, MP and Deputy Chairman of the CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group
“The EU can and should have good relations with Russia; this ECFR report indicates what the priorities should be. Wishful thinking needs to be abandoned, yet respect for universal values strengthened, as Europe re-engages Russia into closer cooperation.”
Adam D. Rotfeld, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Co-Chairman of Polish-Russian Group on Difficult Matters
“A very timely and much-needed document.”
Vaira Vike-Freiberga, former President of Latvia
#1 by Victor on December 1, 2011 - 9:01 pm
Russia’s decline is actually bad short and medium term news for Eastern Europe, specially Ukraine. The EU will think it will have another opportunity at anchoring these countries in a few decades time, once its own internal problems and the digestion of previous enlargements is completed. The issue in the EU is no longer conditionality, but rather absorption capacity. Yet France and Germany are making a risky bet, just as they did with Georgia. It took around 15 years between the fall of Communism and the first Eastern Accessions. So why not give the accession perspective already but make these countries recognize that they will have to wait. There is a difference between standing on queue and having the door shut in your face. Germany in particular is playing Russia’s game with its stance. It is outrageous that the Germans pride themselves in their analytical capabilities and nonetheless are shown such lack of strategic thinking as regards enlargement and the Euro.
#2 by Joe on December 2, 2011 - 3:47 pm
I don’t think any sort of specific treatment is needed at all. What their economy is evolving into is a commodity exporting one, where it costs them more to deliver their ag, oil, and gas to Asia than it is to Europe and the near East.
That they have the former KGB station chief in the DDR in charge is regrettable (mostly for them), but not anything that civilized societies (the ones that don’t elect people on their basis to be butch quasi-dictator wanabees)… can do about it.
Their export base and the net inflow of monies that come with it is their “modernization plan”, despite the wagging fingers of western know-it-alls. Is their self-direction toward transformation and development something we’re supposed to (insultingly) show surprise over?
As long as they have gas to sell to Europe, and increasingly understand that others have gas to sell as well, they will likely cooperate, by which I mean not meddle and try to shut their pie-holes when others are in dire straights.
The way to contain the Russian habit of shutting pipeline valves off is to expand Europe’s number of LNG terminals, and distibution network.
#3 by berry on December 3, 2011 - 7:41 am
EU to deal with anything? Not even the people in the countries waiting to be candidates want in. And this “post-BRIC Russia” seems like a soundbite you wish to catch on. The economy is still growing at 4%. Last decade Brazil averaged less than that, and that was the decade when it was coined. The US ruined its turn to have normal relations with Russia, and the EU had better not do it too.
Brazil and Russia are both struggling with a dependency on commodity exports. Latin America was having economic difficulty after Argentina’s default, but picked up with China’s growing economy. Now it is Europe’s turn, where even Britain is dealing with high inflation and no economic growth.
#4 by Nicu Popescu on December 6, 2011 - 12:52 am
@Berry: BRIC is as much of a soundbite as post-BRIC is. On Brazil and Russia. The difference is that they probably have different trajectories. Or would you call Russia a rising power?
#5 by berry on December 6, 2011 - 11:13 pm
They are both moving forward, Nicu, despite the always negative depiction in the Western media (something that has not changed in 600 years). In Russia people are buying their own cars, making it one of the fastest growing markets in the world. They are eating meat at record levels, and it just became the country in Europe with the largest number of internet users. This indicates a growing middle class. Twelve years ago people would never be able to afford any of these things.