This will probably make boring reading, but for those with some stamina to go through typically unreadable, but important, EU-speak here is a comparison of how Ukraine and Moldova perform on their way towards a visa-free regime with the EU. The assessment is based on the recent progress reports by the European Commission on the implementation of the Action Plans on visa liberalisation by Ukraien and Moldova. (The relevant documents are here: Action Plans for Ukraine and Moldova outlining the conditions; and the progress reports for Ukraine and Moldova evaluating progress September 2011).

The progress reports are mainly concerned with legislative adjustments, which correspond to Phase 1 of the Action Plan. Evaluating realities will come next years. In order to somehow quantify the conclusions I also decided to give a ‘plus’ to the country that is ahead with some reforms, and a ‘minus’ to the country that lags behind the other (a simplified version of what ESI did with the Schengen White List project). Giving just plusses and minuses is of course quite simplistic, but nonetheless a useful exercise for a ‘quick and dirty’ look at where Moldova and Ukraine stand in relation to each other. I also decided to give additional bonuses in the form of half or full plusses to some areas which are much more important than the others (like introduction of biometric passports – a full plus, or half-pluses to having a half-functioning migration service or having implementing protocols for readmission agreements with EU member states). Finally, the table does not mention all the areas or laws mentioned in the progress reports, but only those where (comparative) value judgements are made and progress is assessed. So here is the table on who does better in the visa-dialogue with the EU: Ukraine or Moldova?

Introduction of the progress reports

Block 1: Document security, including biometrics

Block 2: Irregular migration, including readmission

Block 3: Public Order and Security

Block 4: External Relations and Fundamental Rights

Moldova-Ukraine: 14 vs 9

Moldova gets 14.5 plusses (13 plusses + 1 bonus point for having switched to the issuance of biometric passports only and 0.5 for the implementing protocols of the readmission agreement with EU members states). Correspondingly Moldova gets 9 minuses for those areas where it lags behind Ukraine. The minuses for Moldova are related to: the legislative framework in border management and the creation of a Migration Service (now the Border Guards Service of Moldova and the Migration and Asylum Bureau of the Ministry of Interior should be merged, which would result in the creation of Border Police under the Ministry of Interior), the signature of readmission agreements with Russia and several half- or non-European states from Turkey to China, anti-corruption legislation, anti-drug efforts and cooperation with the corresponding EU agency (EMCDAA) and negotiations with Eurojust on a cooperation agreements.

Ukraine gets 9.5 plusses (9 points + a 0.5 bonus for the Migration Service. The bonus is not so much for the functioning of the service ‘which needs to be consolidated’ but more due to the fact that the corresponding counterpart in Moldova has not even been mentioned in the report). The areas where Ukraine clearly needs to do some catching up are in the signing of Implementing protocols for the Readmission Agreement with the EU and moving faster on the roll-out of biometric passports. Whereas Moldova switched to the issuance of biometric passports only in January 2011 (except in consulates), Ukraine is still stuck with its policy process. In September the Ukrainian parliament adopted a law opening the way for the issuance of biometric passports, but then president Yanukovich vetoed it in October and the Government started to work on a new bill. In other words on biometric passports Moldova is at least a couple of years ahead, since it takes time and money to equip all passport-issuance authorities (so-called UOVIRRs) as well as all the border crossing points with the necessary equipment to produce and read biometric passports. It also seems that Moldova is more advanced on several fronts when it comes to legislative harmonisation with the EU on migration and asylum policy, combating trafficking in human beings, and preventing money laundering. Moldova is also more advanced in the development of a migration profile. One word of caution relates to the setting up of an anti-corruption agency. Ukraine is supposed to set up one, whereas Moldova has had one for over a decade. Yet in the case of Moldova, the anti-corruption centre often became an instrument in the hands of the high-, mid- and even low-level officials not so much to combat corruption as to benefit from it through the extraction of rents and pressures on businesses.

Finally, adopting laws is good, but implementing them is much tougher and longer. This is where the real test for Moldova and Ukraine will come. The next EU progress reports should start looking into the murkier area of how laws are implemented, not just how fast they are adopted (and even at this stage I am not very impressed by the speed of legislative adjustments. If the two countries have such lacunae on adopting laws, how long will it take to implement them?) Judging from the current report I would say the next big test for Moldova is the setting up of the Border Police and for Ukraine to move much faster to issuing biometric passports only (instead parallel issuance of both types of passports).

PS. Once Russia and EU publish their ‘common steps’ towards visa liberalisation in December, it will be interesting to look into who’s faster in fulfilling the necessary conditions in a three-way race between Russia, Ukraine and Moldova.