It might seem that EU-Ukraine relations are poised for a new start. The end of EU’s institutional crisis and the entry into force of Lisbon opens the way for the EU to move beyond its institutional reform into a great new era of outward-looking foreign policy. In a couple of months many expect that Ukraine will get a more stable (even though more centralised, perhaps) Tymoshenko administration. So, the hope goes, internal stabilisation in both Ukraine and the EU might open up new avenues for co-operation.

But there is also a fear that some underlying trends might be pointing in the opposite direction. IN the aftermath of the January gas crisis  a comment on EUObs by my fellow blogger from EU-Ukraine.blogspot.com spoke of the pro-European consensus in Ukraine (as well as the danger that it might fade). And now it seems Ukraine is growing increasingly frustrated with the EU. This is no big news and the feeling in the EU is mutual. There is “Ukraine fatigue” in the EU, but there is also “EU fatigue” in Ukraine. And this mutual fatigue augurs nothing good for any potential of a new start. A recent comment on the EU Observer pointed to the fact that not a single presidential candidate (except Yushchenko) is using strong pro-EU rhetoric, some other candidates are increasingly and deliberately brutal about the EU, while “derogatory terms such as euro-romanticism and euro-idiotism are entering routine discourse”.

Ukraine’s euro-enthusiasts are trying to push back. A Ukrainian diplomat attempts to  turn the tide of the growing EU-skepticism in Ukraine by making the case for European integration in Dzerkalo Tyzhnia in an article with a suggestive title: “How not to get lost between pan-Ukrainian imperialism and euro-criticism”. The suggested remedy against the growing EU-scepticism is an infusion of Europeanism and an advice for the new president of Ukraine to apply for EU membership in spring 2010. A few excerpts from the article are worth quoting. They outline quite well the current Ukrainian thinking on the EU:

“Every time when we talk about joining the EU, they [the EU] try to shut us up, and some EU representatives are getting angry… Why should we give up on this? In order to make their it easier for them to push for their proposals on tariffs and the opening of our market without simplifying visa procedures for us?”

“Ten years ago we were told in the EU that they have a huge enlargement wave, 12 new states and once they are done with that, our turn will come. After that they pointed to our lack of democracy and infringements of freedom of speech. Then they changed the arguments … by invoking the non-ratification of the new EU treaty and problems with French, Dutch and then Irish voters… Today they have another excuse: Ukraine is in such a terrible mess, get your house in order and then… All this is hypocrisy. Even if our house was in order, I can guarantee the EU will find another excuse… There will never be a moment when all other EU’s problems will be solved and the eurocrats will sit down at a roundtable and say: it is time to think about Ukraine… We have the full moral, legal, and political right to raise the question of accession to the EU… For Ukraine – its survival, internal development and modernisation are at stake. As for the EU – its historical mission of unification of Europe is at stake.”

Indeed, the stake are high for the European security order. But I am afraid I do not see either the Ukrainian politicians, nor the European leaders grasping the stakes and acting strategically. For the time being, indulging in the sense of “fatigue” seems to be the default option for both.

PS: On a different note. Here is a piece on Ukrainian-Romanian relations I recently published in the same DzerkaloTyzhnya: in Russian and Ukrainian.