An Armenian acquaintance recently noted that Armenia is apparently the only Eastern Partnership (EaP) country that is really satisfied with the policy – all the other partners want either more, or less from the EU. Of course this highlights Armenia’s limited (or realistic) ambitions vis-a-vis the EU. But also the fact that Armenia, instead of constantly complaining that the EU is not doing enough (like Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia often do), pragmatically tries to benefit from what is on offer from the EU.
At the beginning of this year Armenia became the first country of the Eastern neighbourhood where the EU deployed a mission of eight advisers across a whole set of state institutions. Because the project was considered a success the EU is about to send an additional six persons.
Initially EU’s political ambitions were relatively high – it wanted to send not just technical advisors to line ministries, but also the presidency and the office of the prime-minister. This was scaled back, though, after Armenia backtracked due to alleged concerns by Russia that the EU is too intrusive. And it was not clear anyway how much ‘political’ advice Armenia wanted, since its politics remain more autocratic than that of Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia.
The end result is that most EU advisors are technical experts working in the ombudsman’s office, ministry of economy, ministry of finance (one working on customs, and another on fiscal policies), and the foreign ministry (helping the ministry to set up a diplomatic academy). The recently announced extension of the team should include a deputy team leader, a communications officer and more advisors to the ministry of finance (on tax audits) and economy (one on intellectual property rights; another on on sanytary and phyto-sanitary standards; and a third one on barriers to trade).
Even though the official name of the EU mission has the pompous name of “High-level EU advisory group” – neither the EU, nor Armenia boast about it. Both keep a low-profile.
A Russian proverb says that if you advance quietly, you make it further (“tishe edesh, dalshe budesh”). It might be, or might not be, the case of Armenia. Its politics is very centralised and in terms of values it is much further away from the EU than Ukraine, Moldova and partly Georgia. I also see no progress in the investigation of the post-election violence of March 2008 which left at least 10 persons dead. And anyway, so far Armenia seems more systematic in attracting European expertise to promote some reforms than the much noisier pro-Europeans like Ukraine and Moldova (Georgia is full of advisors from the US and some EU member states). Another friend of mine, Jana Kobzova, says that “Ukraine and Moldova have democracy, but no governance; while Belarus has better governance, but not democracy”. Seems like Armenia might fit into the second category – less democracy, but better governance.
OFFTOPIC: A fact I find interesting (and suprising) about Armenia is that Belgium and Russia have roughly the same share of Armenia’s foreign trade. Russia is a strategic ally of Armenia and is geographically close. And Belgium’s position vis-a-vis the South Caucasus… no need to explain. Though the explanation is that Armenia is processing diamonds for Antwerpen’s diamond industry.
#1 by Karen Madoian on October 12, 2009 - 10:41 pm
Armenia has all chances to become the EaP success story. While Ukraine and Moldova are dissatisfied with cooperation instruments proposed by the current neighbourhood policy, Armenia has chosen a pragmatic approach that, I beleive, will result in considerable dividents from the EU involvement in the process of domestic reforms.
#2 by Bojan on October 13, 2009 - 2:53 pm
Splendid article, although the russian proverb translation needs a bit of extra work
#3 by Emil on October 14, 2009 - 5:49 pm
Note that foreign trade data is 9 years old, but EU countries are still doing more trade with Armenia than Russia. More recently, Germany has taken over from Belgium as Armenia’s main trade partner in Europe.
#4 by Ivan Kalburov on October 14, 2009 - 11:29 pm
A traditional EU approach to start with fact-finding missions, then send 3-4 experts, then a few more and eventually start writing the laws regulating foreign trade and agricultural subsidies. Really nice.
There is something worrisome though – the frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan may get hot soon again. In the last 3 years Azeri defense budget more than doubled and continues to grow. At the same time the resources in the disputed territories may sparkle the flame as both countries get eager to get more revenues, especially Azerbaijan, which already felt the taste of selling oil and gas.
Thus a growing EU presence in Armenia maybe a stabilizing factor, more than the article suggests.
#5 by Karen Madoian on October 16, 2009 - 9:16 am
@Ivan Kalburov
Ivan, no doubt that Azeri military potential prevails in terms of armament and human resources. However, there are two factors bringing any chance of another Azeri-Armenian conflict to zero:
1. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (also includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan). According to the CSTO statute, aggression against one signatory would be perceived as an aggression against all. Besides, there is a significant Russian military presence in Armenia (the 102 military base with its infrastructure deployed in Yerevan and Gyumri).
2. A pipeline factor. Both the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipelines are located close to the territories controlled by Nagorno-Karabakh defence forces (the closest approach is just over 30 km) . If Azerbaijan opts for a military solution, the pipelines become an easy target for artillery and air forces of the opposite side.
#6 by HAYASTANCiner on April 16, 2011 - 2:01 pm
We need to get rid of the criminal karabakh robik-serzhik pro-russian regime in our rep. of Armenia!
HAYASTANCi MOVEMENT!
http://antirussia.org/flight.html
http://twitter.com/hayastanciner