Grumbling is part of the run-up to any gathering of EU leaders. There seems to be more it about than usual though – possibly a sign that this summit may really produce (some of) the goods.
Here is a list of some of the grumbles / issues.
Tightening economic governance in the eurozone - there are several options.
Full-blown EU treaty change – with all the Pandora-box-drama that this potentially entails
The 17 euro countries forge ahead with their own pact, and the European institutions – according to the Franco-German letter sent Wednesday – play “an important role”. This new accord should be “integrated into EU law as soon as possible”. This is legally and politically difficult. Would need the agreement of all 27 member states.
The protocol 12 option – European Council President Herman Van Rompuy pulled this legal trick out of a hat on Tuesday. This would see Article 126, para 14 – previously unknown to most of Brussels – put into action. This allows protocol 12 – outlining excessive deficit steps – to be changed simply by agreement among EU leaders. Much, though not all (extended ECJ power), of economic governance rule-tightening could be shoved into Protocol 12. However, the final outcome would likely still have to be approved by the UK parliament.
The treaty change question has opened a whole subset of complaining.
The Germans still want to press ahead with full treaty change and have dismissed Van Rompuy’s protocol option as “trickery.” From Van Rompuy’s side there is exasperation that Berlin is not prepared to accept this solution when there is so much reluctance among other member states to change the treaty. But Van Rompuy’s team is quietly confident that their solution will prevail because it is the least complicated and the most legally sound (this last is a reference to the 17 plus EU institutions idea). German officials complain that others are not understanding the seriousness of the crisis and the need to take quick decisions – something bound to cause some spluttering as this is what Germany has been accused of from the very beginning.
The Franco-German letter, outlining what the economic governance future should hold, is also raising hackles.
The Finns say they cannot accept the proposal to introduce “super majority” decision-making when it comes to the permanent bailout fund (ESM). Finance minister Jutta Urpilainen called it an “alarming arrangement.” They are also against ruling out private sector involvement in future bailouts under the ESM. (In a major climbdown, Germany has agreed that language in the ESM treaty requiring insolvent countries to negotiate bondholder losses has been removed.)
Meanwhile proposals by Van Rompuy that the ESM be given a banking certificate have long been opposed by Berlin. Finland and the Netherlands are also unlikely to support this.
Ireland, which views EU treaty change through referendum-tinted specs, is heading to the negotiation table wanting to make the terms of its EU-IMF bailout deal more flexible. It was thoroughly irritated at bilateral summit in Berlin last month when its demands to this end fell on deaf ears. It is now also alarmed by Paris and Berlin’s push for a common corporate tax base, something Dublin views as tax harmonisation, via the “back door”. (Incidentally, Enda Kenny, the Irish PM, is heading to the summit with 12 advisers, the Irish Times tells us).
Eurobonds are another bone of contention. Germany is refusing to consider the idea for now. But the European Commission and Van Rompuy have kept it on the table. (This forms part of the solidarity/discipline debate. Those complaining about Germany’s solutions to the crisis say Berlin is only focussed on budgetary discipline. A fiscal union cannot exist without some form of solidarity).
Financial transaction tax – France and Germany are eager to push ahead with this – mentioning it again in Wednesday’s letter. Fiercely opposed by the UK (with the biggest financial services sector in Europe), it is not much liked by the Netherlands either. Berlin and Paris also want to push head with pan-European regulation of finance. Again Britain is not a fan.
Role of the UK – This would need a whole separate blog to itself. Suffice to say that Prime Minister David Cameron, hemmed in by a fiercely eurosceptic Tory party, is heading to Brussels with fists raised and amid a flurry hardball statements on what he will and will not allow other member states to do. Other countries, which normally allow for Cameron having to play to the domestic gallery, are increasingly exasperated by the tone. However, the three options outline above would need to be oked by the UK in some way. Of most concern to the UK is it financial services sector. It is worried that if the 17 eurozone countries go off for a permanent huddle, they will opt for more protectionist measures that affect the internal market.
London is already extremely concerned about Sarkozy’s idea to have monthly meetings of eurozone leaders – not so much for the meeting themselves but for the fact that they are supposed to discuss competitivity and growth, issues that ought to be discussed by all 27 member states, it says.
So where does that leave us? Possibly forgetting that, amid all this treaty talk, solutions are needed now, such as on boosting the current bailout fund (which has failed to attract investors in anything like the order of magnitude that is needed.)
Alarmingly the Germans have said they have no plans for the weekend. Other diplomats – possibly those with plans for the weekend – have suggested they think a deal will be place by Friday evening.
It’s anyone’s guess what the outcome will be. But the meeting could see agreement on all changes that would not trigger a referendum in Ireland and other countries (see this very helpful article), with a promise to carry out more profound treaty change further down the line.
#1 by Victor on December 8, 2011 - 11:14 pm
The Amendment of the Irish Constitution allowing the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty doesn’t include Article 126(14) as amongst those requiring parliamentary approval.
Yet in the UK, the EU 2011 Act does require parliamentary approval. So Cameron’s hands are both strengthened and partially tied in any negotiation. We will need to see whether he is willing to put the Euro zone and therefore the world economy at risk just to protect the financial interests of the City.
The option of a Treaty amongst the Euro 17 would probably require an Irish opt-out to not require a referendum.
#2 by Victor on December 9, 2011 - 7:16 am
We are witnessing the birth of a fiscal Schengen, with the UK once again outside.
Now the main question is whether Ireland can ratify or whether it will be kicked out of the Euro zone or given a new protocol or opt-out or made to hold how many referenda.
#3 by Victor on December 9, 2011 - 8:48 am
There is probably an unstated quid pro quo with the UK, so that Cameron doesn´t have to ratify the Treaty amendment establishing the legal basis for the European Stability Mechanism. The logical choice would be to abandon this initiative and probably to merge the changes to the draft ESM treaty with the new provisions on fiscal discipline, so as to make it a take it or leave it deal, in view of its offering to the Irish and other potential holdouts.
#4 by droom on December 9, 2011 - 11:52 am
Today is a great day for Europe. The Brits are not taking aprt in the new financial pact, on this pro-british, webste, it was even stated that Cameron “overplayed his hand”. The moment arrives that the UK withdraws from the EU, or maybe, they prefer to be kicked out in 2012? Great, the ycan g oback to their beloved splendid isolation on their island, which has no constitution, by the way.
2012 is also the year that another idiot is leaving politics, the Czech president, V. Klaus, so maybe the Czechs are becoming more positive about the EU.
One question remains : should the reamaianing 26 countires send the Brits a bill for all the subsidies they have drawn from the EU sicne they became a member? It’s paid by the taxpayers of hte other 26 countries. What should we do?
#5 by Peter Sain ley Berry on December 11, 2011 - 7:58 pm
Britain has always been tardy in signing up for European treaties. This predates the EU. It took us 170 years to sign up to the single calendar and 17 years to sign the Treaty of Rome. It will take us a few years but I have no doubt we shall be on board the latest treaty in due course. I am sorry we can’t be there at the beginning but that is the way it is. We need to be permitted our flounce. But we shall always come good in the end. So don’t worry overly about Mr Cameron and his eurosceptics – rather consider what Britain has given to the EU and what it stands to give in the future. This is but a blip.
#6 by Marcel on December 12, 2011 - 2:34 am
Cameron is the undisputed winner. If Britain will leave the EU (he should promise this, call snap elections and win in a landslide). I’ll ask my company for a transfer to our British office if that happens. Freedom seems to be closer than I dared dream just last week.
The undemocratic Eurosoviet Union is like the Titanic hitting the iceberg. Cameron is heading for the lifeboats and Sarkozy and Merkel are staying on the bridge. Europhiles all advocate staying on deck. Is this not the epitome of stupidity? Why agree to a treaty that will disproportionately hurt Britain and particularly London, and only really benefits France?
Rather to be ‘isolated’ in a lifeboat than to be ‘integrated’ into a drowning crowd.
Ask yourself, where is the EU going to get the money from to cover for Britain’s net contribution they’ll lose? France? Exactly… /sarc
And besides, Britain will not be isolated at all, ever heard of THE REST OF THE WORLD? Or the Commonwealth? Britain will no longer need Brussels’ permission to trade with the rest of the world, another big benefit.