Extraordinary times these. It is hard to know where to begin. Everything is in a state of flux. Solutions by panic. EU rule-books distorted well beyond original intention. Money thrown at the surface of a problem. ECB U-turns. A bit of premature back-patting. And now grumblings to the effect that the underlying (structural) problem has not gone away. And in the middle of it all, the waxing and waning EU fortunes of Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel.
(Given their cool personal relationship, it seems that either one is politically up in Europe and the other down, or vice versa. ‘Madame Non’ has had her time. Monsieur Le President of the “Eurozone Council” believes he is having his. A toe-curling piece in Le Figaro certainly thinks so, in any case.)
But to my mind – going above and beyond the EU’s torturous response to the Greek and now eurozone crisis and the equally torturous debate on further economic governance that is set to come – a striking element of these last days has been the role of the White House.
US president Barack Obama has leapt into the Brussels power vacuum – that yawning gap where necessary political action fails to meet political will/leadership. And he hasn’t been quiet about it either.
A New York Times piece on Monday was an indictment of the EU’s own lack of leadership and its apparent inability to think beyond fire-fighting mode.
According to the article, Obama got on the phone to Merkel on Sunday to tell her that Europe ‘needed to try something big.’ He also phoned Sarkozy. It was only after these conversations that the impetus came for the “shock and awe” agreement that has brought Europe some time.
And again on Tuesday, the US president was on the phone to Spanish leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to tell him that he needs to undertake “resolute action” to stem the country’s widening deficit and help boost market confidence in the eurozone.
Obama’s spokesman Robert Gibbs said Spain was “one of the countries that … because of some of their problems, need to undertake reforms that the prime minister is starting to work through,” reports Reuters.
And later: “We continue to play a role in encouraging the Europeans … to do what’s necessary to ensure that this problem is dealt with and doesn’t spread.”
This morning, Zapatero announced new austerity measures.
Obama’s move highlights a few issues. One, obviously, is the fear that the eurozone’s problems could cause a global crisis of confidence. The other is that while Obama can ring up and tell one member state what to do, this is a political taboo among member states themselves. Nor is it possible for the European Commission to exercise this role. It can say the same things as Obama but it simply doesn’t have the clout when it comes down to it.
Which brings us to today’s announcements by the commission to further increase budgetary surveillance and tighten up the rules of the eurozone’s stability and growth pact. According to commission president Jose Manuel Barroso:
“Europe has been dealing with [the economic crisis] with urgency. We must show we are serious about more fundamental reforms… We must now get to the root of the problems. At times like this, Europe can make serious progress.
Today, the Commission is seizing the moment to reinforce the economic policy coordination and fiscal discipline in Europe.”
Like a sulky teenager, the EU has been pushed to this point. Willingness and a longterm vision had little to do with it. So while the EU is likely to change its economic governance rules, I am not sure Obama will have to stop working the phones in the near future.
#1 by Arnaud Jasperse on May 13, 2010 - 12:38 pm
You cannot convince me that Obama eventually pushed Merkel and Zapatero into action…
Spain is not in as dire straits as Greece is (the UK is, though), even though the markets like to think so, so there was no hurry for Spain to cut costs…
Merkel obviously wanted to wait with the announcement of freeing up billions of euro’s for countries that did not obey the rules previously agreed on, till after the election in Nord-Rhein-Westfalen…
And what prompted this? Not Obama, certainly not… The fact that the euro started to dip below $1,30 in the coming week was a much scarier thought then a phonecall from across the atlantic…
But there is a more hidden agenda…
Soon, the G20 in Canada takes place, and what better way to press world-wide financial market reform on the US than a threat to let the whole system almost collapse again?
PS: why did ethiopia get an invite to the G20? (I understand why the Netherlands and Spain got invited, as well as Malawi, current head of the African Union, and Vietnam, current head of ASEAN)
#2 by Betterworld Now on May 13, 2010 - 1:44 pm
Whatever the desires, panicked or otherwise, of the worlds leading capitalist apologists on either side of the Atlantic the facts on the ground are what will determine the outcome of the crisis.
Can the austerity demanded by the markets actually be delivered by democratic governments in Europe? I doubt it. These governments are already extremely unpopular and their acceptance by the populus is in decline in virtually all countries of the EU.
And that is before they have worked out precisely what austerity measures will be required to appease the notoriously insatiable “markets”. Many citizens have already seen the largest transfer of capital from working people to the capitalist elite in human history through bank bail-outs – they are in no mood to repeat it.
The Icelanders showed that it is impossible to get informed people to bail out international capital gamblers. The latest EU gamble (the biggest “I’ll raise you” in history), if it fails, is big enough to pull down the whole edifice. That’s why Obama is worried.
He is right to be worried.