Pat Cox is back in action. And reportedly aiming (again) to be Ireland’s next EU commissioner. The former journalist, turned MEP, turned president of the European Parliament, turned lobbyist-at-large has tied his colours to the Lisbon Treaty’s success in Ireland.
He is heading the recently-launched group ‘Ireland for Europe’ – including musicians, athletes and authors – which is campaigning for a yes vote in the Lisbon Treaty referendum.
By his own reckoning he is well known in Ireland but not associated with the unpopular government, although he has good relations with it.
A yes vote begets a commissioner post?
For the Fianna Fail government, badly wounded in the recent local elections, this set-up would save it from having to choose someone from within its own ranks, a not particularly glorious line-up which would prompt a (probably unwinnable) byelection to boot.
In addition, while not being FF himself, Pat Cox is not from the opposition Fine Gael. He first ran to be an MEP on a Progressive Democrat ticket (a small economically liberal party set up in the 1980s) before winning a seat as an Independent. He sat in the Liberal group in the European Parliament, which has just admitted Fianna Fail to its ranks. He has the added advantage of having operated outside Irish politics for long enough to now be considered to be above the domestic fray.
He is an able politician, knows his way well around Europe and is far better suited to the life of being a commissioner than Charlie McCreevy, who pined for scrappy local Irish politics from day one. Cox is also a gifted communicator, although he is rather long-winded and has a tendency to elevate his rhetoric to (not entirely necessary) flowery planes.
Still this might come in handy during the Lisbon referendum campaign mark II. He could simply round up any hesitant voters and talk them into submission.
#1 by Pat McA on June 24, 2009 - 11:15 am
One thing that Pat Cox has going for him is that he was once a member of Fianna Fáil (although never in an elected capacity). Prior to joining RTE ( Irish TV & Radio station) Mr. Cox was a leading light in Ogra Fianna Fáil (youth wing of FF) where he cut his political teeth and met his mentor Des O’Malley founder of the Progressive Democrats. During his time in Ogra FF & later with the PD’s Pat Cox would have come to know most if not all of the members of the FF side of the present Government. This along with the impressive European CV that Pat Cox has must make him favourite to be the next Irish commissioner. If he can deliver a Yes Vote then its likely that the book- makers will stop taking bets. All this must come as a disappointment to some of the current Irish cabinet who see their chances diminish with the decline in Government support in each successive opinion poll and to Taoiseach Brian Cowen who would have seen the opportunity to appoint a commissioner from the ranks of cabinet as an opportunity to reshuffle a cabinet in need of new blood. But first Pat Cox must deliver the Yes vote , in that task I wish him every success.
#2 by Freeborn John on June 24, 2009 - 4:31 pm
EU supporters like to say that voting NO to Lisbon has caused the downturn but how do they explain that Spain voted YES in 2005 and its unemployment rate has doubled to 18% since? The current bust in both Ireland and Spain is the direct consequence of the treaty of Maasticht and the decade of inappropriately low eurozone interest rates that it brought, which fuelled the construction boom and bust. Ireland has become the most unstable economy in the developed world since Maastricht with the low-interest rate fueled Celtic Tiger not suffering the most serious downturn anywhere on Earth.
Lisbon is to politics what Maastricht was to economics. It would lead to an unchecked concentration of political power in Brussels and the equivalent of negative equity for the power of your vote to shape your own life.
#3 by zeleneye on June 25, 2009 - 2:59 pm
Cox would be an easy out for the beleaguered FF govt alright. However, I imagine it is the Cox team that is spinning his chances, like they (he) did the last time. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
BTW is that the same Freeborn John who comments on the BBC blog? Man you must have nothing better to do. It is ridiculous to claim that Lisbon “concentrates power in Brussels”. The EU is now – more than at any period over the past 15 years – degenerating into a club of countries defending the national interest. Reselecting Barroso confirms this trend as Barroso is a lackey to the member states. I am starting to reconsider Lisbon but for completely the opposite reasons: I don’t want an unelected president of the European Council who would also serve as a lacky to France and Germany and Britain – just as Barroso has done.
#4 by Steve Peers on June 25, 2009 - 5:48 pm
Freeborn John – since you say adopting the euro has caused a recession in Ireland, therefore it must also be the cause of the recession in Iceland, the UK, the USA and other non-euro countries too?? No doubt you will tell us how.
#5 by Freeborn John on June 25, 2009 - 6:52 pm
Steve Peers: Eurozone membership exacerbated both the boom and bust in Ireland (and Spain, etc.) because it kept interest rates too low for a decade. It is no accident that the the growth in Ireland during the Celtic Tiger years was is in two sectors (construction and finance) that were both interest rate sensitive. Ireland is not widely regarded as the most unstable ecomony on Earth and this is now structural because it is has monetary policy suited to Germany, but its main trade and FDI partners are the UK and USA. Ireland is thus condemned to a perpetual cycle of deep boom and bust thanks to Maastricht.
If Iceland had been a euro-zone member they would have borrowed even more that they did already because their interest rates would have been lower for a decade too. The consequence would then have been either an earlier bust or a deeper one.
#6 by Freeborn John on June 25, 2009 - 6:54 pm
Steve Peers: Eurozone membership exacerbated both the boom and bust in Ireland (and Spain, etc.) because it kept interest rates too low for a decade. It is no accident that the the growth in Ireland during the Celtic Tiger years was is in two sectors (construction and finance) that were both interest rate sensitive. Ireland is noW widely regarded as the most unstable economy on Earth and this is now structural because it is has monetary policy suited to Germany, but its main trade and FDI partners are the UK and USA. Ireland is thus condemned to a perpetual cycle of deep boom and bust thanks to Maastricht.
If Iceland had been a euro-zone member they would have borrowed even more that they did already because their interest rates would have been lower for a decade too. The consequence would then have been either an earlier bust or a deeper one.
#7 by Anne Palmer on June 26, 2009 - 9:47 pm
If the people of Ireland vote “NO” to the Treaty of Lisbon, the EU will soon be finished. If the people of Ireland vote “YES” to Lisbon, the EU will still soon be finished.
Please work it out for yourselves.
#8 by Denis O Buachalla on June 28, 2009 - 7:46 pm
Pat Cox will make a valuable contribution to the debate that will help Irish voters reject the Lisbon Treaty for the second time.
He is totally committed to the European Project that allows by default in giving yet more unaccountable power to unelected elites. All the concerns of the Irish People regarding the reasons for the defeat of the Lisbon Treaty as set out by the Irish Taoiseach Deputy Brian Cowan at the European Council on June 18 last were not fully conveyed to the Member State Governments. These undisclosed concerns will in due course take centre stage during the debate.
Should the Lisbon Treaty be defeated, Pat Cox would still make an excellent Commissioner and would be ideally qualified to serve as a Commission Vice President with responsibility for Institutional Relations and Communication Strategy. He would probably be the first “ People -Type Commissioner” to be appointed in recent years. However his prospects of being appointed are better under Nice Rules than Lisbon. If Lisbon came into force, José Manuel Barroso if approved by the European Parliament as next Commission President will do his utmost to pressurise the Irish Government to nominate the current EU Ambassador to the United States and former Irish Taoiseach,John Bruton as the Irish Commissioner.
Whereas John Bruton is a very competent, he would be not be the best choice, he is already far too much institutionalised in the Commission External Service in the most elitist of all Commission Directorates and his appointment would lend him to be even more removed from ordinary citizens of Europe. The Grange Gate saga may yet haunt him when he was able to get the discredited Santer Commission to have a State Farm with a population of 1,000 cows in close proximity to one of his own farms deemed a “city “to house the European food Veterinary Office in Ireland. John Bruton would be the ideal candidate to serve as the next EU Ambassador to Iran or North Korea with his vast understanding of American Foreign Policy and coming from a non colonial background would help bring a solution to the current instability of a possible nuclear threat. Success on this front would open the door for him to becoming the first elected Fine Gael President of Ireland when the vacancy arises in a few years time.
Of course the dark horse for the next Irish Commissioner is the current Taoiseach Brian Cowan. The defeat of the Lisbon Treaty would act as a catalyst to the formation of a Government of National Unity to deal with economic crisis between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael under the leadership of Fine Gael Leader, Enda Kenny that would conveniently pack off Brian Cowan to Europe.
#9 by Sean Murtagh on June 29, 2009 - 11:06 am
Pat Cox will be as much a benefit to the Yes camp as he will have as getting elected as the next Pope!!!!!
#10 by zeleneye on June 30, 2009 - 5:10 pm
Freeborn John, you clearly have limited understanding of the property boom in Ireland. To blame it on low interests displays a gross understanding of situation and basic economics. Successive Irish governments refused to take any steps to regulate an overheating property market or to prevent irresponsible banks from handing out multiple mortgages to people regardless of whether or not they could afford them.
The interest rate was a given: our government had multiple other regulatory tools available to prevent the boom but was too cowardly (or too deep in the pockets of the construction industry and their financiers) to do anything. The boom suited them and I doubt they would have adjusted interest rates even if they could have.
However, one clear fact is that the only thing standing between Ireland inc. and oblivion right now is the ECB (which is the sole client for our bonds) and Eurozone membership.
You may not want to understand these facts but they are facts…they are also irrelevant to this blog post…as are you.
#11 by Sean Murtagh on July 8, 2009 - 8:35 am
Was it not the ECB in consort with the world banks that deliberately caused the Global economic crisis to further their own greed! Does anybody actually know the names of the corrupt owners of the ECB? Certainly not the European people anyway!