The European Commission has the almost impossible task of trying to maintain the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact without exciting a nationalist backlash among member states as they grapple with widening budget deficits.

So even as monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia on Wednesday was firing the first warning shot across the bows of all those countries that are breaching the euro rules – France, Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Malta and Spain – he was in same breath trying to control how the message came across.

“During the recession, the pact is not about sanctions. Please don’t explain to the citizens that to implement the pact today is about sanctions.”

On Ireland, for which a massive budget deficit of 11 percent of GDP is forecast this year, Mr Almunia pointed out that the excessive deficit procedure is not about being “against” a country. On Greece: “What we are saying to the Greek authorities is … please step up consolidation now” and later: “it is not the Commission that is putting pressure on the Greek economy… but the markets.”

He repeatedly stressed that the pact – binding members of the eurozone to keep their budget deficits under 3 percent of GDP – would be implemented in a “judicious” way. Sending a pre-emptive warning to governments, he reminded them that they had agreed in December that the pact should remain the “cornerstone” of the bloc’s fiscal framework.

But the almost daily stream of bad news due to the economic downturn makes December, and that promise, appear aeons ago.

Mr Almunia put the commission’s cards on the table. He said it would be “wrong” not to implement the pact during this crisis and it would be a “disaster for the European economy” if it loses credibility.

So the ball is back in member states’ court. They already changed the rules in the back in the relatively halcyon days of 2005 to accommodate France and Germany. But what now? Reactions to the commission’s assessments over the coming days and weeks (it will assess the remaining 10 member states towards the end of this month) will be indicative of whether Brussels will be able to keep a lid on this crisis and keep the pact with some semblance of credibility.