Posts Tagged Lisbon Treaty

The problems with Lisbon

Posted by Stephen Gardner in EU Insider on October 29, 2009

I get the impression that the Lisbon Treaty is backfiring somewhat and no-one wants to talk about it too much at the moment. The Treaty was supposed to consolidate and simplify the EU’s powers and make the running of the machine more straightforward. But we can see in retrospect that the second Irish vote, in exchange for guarantees that will be legally formalised at a later date, has undermined this.

The Irish second vote created a precedent. Vaclav Klaus, in stalling on the treaty, is really only doing what the Irish as a whole did. They didn’t like Lisbon so they obstructed it temporarily until concessions were made. Klaus is doing the same, but in the Czech Republic there have been no referendums on the treaty, so he has taken what superficially looks like a different path of one-man obstructionism. But in the end it amounts to the same thing as the Irish — holding up the treaty to get particular guarantees in the national interest, in the Czech case on the Benes Decrees.

Of course if Klaus gets his way — and why shouldn’t he if the Irish got theirs? — others might start to push for their own concessions, as a recent EU Observer article explains.

But a far more serious booby-trap is waiting in Germany, where the Constitutional Court, in its judgement at the end of June, said the Lisbon Treaty did nothing to correct the EU’s “structural democratic deficit”. Because of this, the Court effectively reserved to itself the power to protect the German Basic Law and the rights of German citizens, should the EU overreach itself. In practical terms, this means the German court may overturn rulings of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), potentially putting a serious brake on further EU integration.

A test case relating to employment law is working its way through the system in Germany. The case — the Mangold case — concerns a finding against Germany by the ECJ over age discrimination. Should the German court decide the ECJ went too far and reverse the Mangold decision, it could change the balance of power between the EU and member states. I’m not sure the implications of this have so far sunk in in Brussels. The German judges are due to pronounce by the end of the year.

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Barroso gets nervous

Posted by Stephen Gardner in EU Insider on July 10, 2009

Panic stations in Camp Barroso. The former Portuguese prime minister, who has steered the European ship for the last five years, can see his second term slipping through his fingers. A letter circulated yesterday (9 July) to the political groups in the Parliament advertised Barroso’s willingness to come and make his pitch to them, and contained a note of desperation: “I believe I have the vision and the experience to lead the Commission… I would like to indicate my availability for meeting with the different political groups in the Parliament that so wish in order to discuss the policy orientations I intend to propose for the next five years.”

Barroso has now been formally nominated by the EU Council, but when it comes to the vote in the Parliament, it is really not easy to see how it might turn out. Crucially, if the vote takes place under Lisbon Treaty rules, for example if it takes place in October after the Irish re-vote, Barroso must secure an absolute majority of MEPs, not just a majority of those who are in the chamber at the time.

That means he has to get 369 votes. As things presently stand, he is backed by the centre right and the slightly more right of the centre right – equivalent to 320 votes. He is opposed, or at least not backed, by the ALDE group, the socialists, the greens and the far left – totalling 358 votes. In other words, no absolute majority either way.

So Barroso can try and convince, for example, ALDE to back him, which would give him an absolute majority (404 votes). There are also in theory 58 floating votes, if we take into account non-aligned members, the fascists, and assorted nutters who do not sit in the six largest groups.

For those not backing Barroso, it is hard to see any reason why they would want to take a vote on him before October. If the vote is postponed until then, if the Irish vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty, and if the vote then becomes a vote on the whole Commission under Lisbon rules, the socialists, greens, etc., can push for a grand bargain covering all the top EU jobs. Under Lisbon, this would include of course a new EU Council permanent president, and a new EU ‘foreign minister’.

If that happens, there would be no foregone conclusion. Although strong alternatives to Barroso have yet to emerge, it is not hard to see why panic is starting to take hold.

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