Panic stations in Camp Barroso. The former Portuguese prime minister, who has steered the European ship for the last five years, can see his second term slipping through his fingers. A letter circulated yesterday (9 July) to the political groups in the Parliament advertised Barroso’s willingness to come and make his pitch to them, and contained a note of desperation: “I believe I have the vision and the experience to lead the Commission… I would like to indicate my availability for meeting with the different political groups in the Parliament that so wish in order to discuss the policy orientations I intend to propose for the next five years.”

Barroso has now been formally nominated by the EU Council, but when it comes to the vote in the Parliament, it is really not easy to see how it might turn out. Crucially, if the vote takes place under Lisbon Treaty rules, for example if it takes place in October after the Irish re-vote, Barroso must secure an absolute majority of MEPs, not just a majority of those who are in the chamber at the time.

That means he has to get 369 votes. As things presently stand, he is backed by the centre right and the slightly more right of the centre right – equivalent to 320 votes. He is opposed, or at least not backed, by the ALDE group, the socialists, the greens and the far left – totalling 358 votes. In other words, no absolute majority either way.

So Barroso can try and convince, for example, ALDE to back him, which would give him an absolute majority (404 votes). There are also in theory 58 floating votes, if we take into account non-aligned members, the fascists, and assorted nutters who do not sit in the six largest groups.

For those not backing Barroso, it is hard to see any reason why they would want to take a vote on him before October. If the vote is postponed until then, if the Irish vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty, and if the vote then becomes a vote on the whole Commission under Lisbon rules, the socialists, greens, etc., can push for a grand bargain covering all the top EU jobs. Under Lisbon, this would include of course a new EU Council permanent president, and a new EU ‘foreign minister’.

If that happens, there would be no foregone conclusion. Although strong alternatives to Barroso have yet to emerge, it is not hard to see why panic is starting to take hold.