Why a European at the IMF?


After initial excitement that the resignation of Dominique Strauss-Kahn might lead to an emerging market candidate to follow him as head of the IMF, Europe has placed its seal firmly upon a successor – Strauss-Kahn’s own distant replacement as French Minister of Finance, Christine Lagarde.

At first glance, the insistence on a European candidate may seem odd. After all, even if the shareholders of a major company, such as Louis Vuitton, all come from a particular area – say, the western suburbs of Paris – they would be crazy to insist on having a CEO from the same neighbourhood. Their interest lies in finding the most competent person for the job. They are likely to search far and wide to find that person.

A similar logic may apply to the IMF, where European countries already have the lion’s share of the votes. Whoever becomes managing director will be responsible to Europe’s directors on the Board, so why insist on having a European to serve them?

The real reason, of course, is political. Europe needs a European to run the IMF, because in the absence of easy credit from the International Monetary Fund, the euro area is politically incapable of arranging and taking responsibility for its own eurozone rescue package. Moreover, even if it were thus capable, many believe that it is not in the best interests of the eurozone to do so.

Let us unpack this a little further. The need for a European to shepherd through easy credit is simple enough: most of the IMF’s lending is now in the European neighbourhood, including also non-eurozone countries such as Hungary, Ukraine or Iceland. The IMF package for Greece, at €30bn, was already the largest in its history, and the package for Portugal, approved last week, added another €26bn. A similar package for Spain could add over €100bn. Italy could be twice as large still. These are vast amounts, and will be hugely controversial if and when they arise. A non-EU director might not be inclined to jeopardise such sums.

Yet why cannot the eurozone arrange its own bailout mechanism? After all, rather than rely on the IMF for financing, Europe could very well establish its own “European” monetary fund, funded by Germany, France, and the Netherlands. Indeed, this is in part what the EFSF and the future ESM are intended to accomplish. However, as I have discussed long ago, the reality of a “European” Monetary Fund would spell death for the project of European integration. It would mean core European nations taking direct responsibility for implementing austerity policies in the eurozone periphery, and taking the resultant political flak. EU nations simply do not have the ‘political capital’ to dictate harsh spending cuts in neighbouring countries, unlike the IMF, which does so as a matter of routine. By shifting surveillance of austerity packages during their most difficult period to the Fund, the core Eurozone countries are able to continue dictating the agenda, but via the front of an international organisation with greater credibility, manouverability, and anonymity.

But what about simply allowing Greece and Ireland to default? After all, under the present Eurogroup and IMF packages, Greece and Ireland can neither pay off their debts, nor default on them, and are thus maintained in permanent debt servitude. Is this not a terrible policy failure?

The answer is no, insofar as these packages were never designed to save Greece and Ireland in the first place. Rather, their purpose is to save the eurozone banking system from collapse. The key beneficiaries of this long, drawn-out process are Dexia, BNP Paribas, and Commerzbank, and behind them, the French and German governments who currently insure their losses. Everyone knows that eventually, Greece and Ireland will have to default, but if they do so in two years time rather than today, then this gives eurozone banks enough time to transfer their assets to the European Central Bank, while shoring up their capital base ahead of the impending haircut. Leaving aside the problem of ECB recapitalisation, this means the contagion effect will be minimised: at the very least, it will not least to the wholesale meltdown that would have occurred if a default were effected today, say, or last summer.

Europe therefore needs a European to run the IMF: but not for reasons of competency, or familiarity. Rather, it is because the eurozone is incapable of fixing its own problems, and requires a candidate pliant and willing enough to take the controversial decisions needed for the currency bloc’s survival. Even, one might add, if such decisions may be perilous for the IMF itself.

  1. #1 by Lawrence on May 30, 2011 - 2:38 pm

    Good observations.
    However, whatever they do they are not going to save the euro or the eu.
    They are going out and gathering speed.

  2. #2 by Marcel on May 30, 2011 - 7:44 pm

    Europe could very well establish its own “European” monetary fund, funded by Germany, France, and the Netherlands.

    Say what? I don’t think so, Tim. Where do you suppose we Netherlands get the money from? Where would we cut it in our own budget.

    This will never happen because we the people in Netherlands are totally opposed to it. We are better off out of the Euro altogether.

  3. #3 by Paul cadier on May 31, 2011 - 8:45 am

    I think your analysis is one of the most perceptive and brutally honest yet to be published. In the next month the IMF must decide if it is going to die in the ditch with the euro, or allow the Europeans to resolve their internal problemsthemselves. We will know which it is to be on 30 June when the nationality of the new MD is revealed. Exactly why should the “International” Monetary fund concern itself with the internal financing of group of it’s members who have eschewed one of the cardinal tools of the IMF, devaluation. The two remaining tools: loans and an austerity package, have never been shown to work on their own. No wonder conspiracy theorists wonder at DSK’s hasty resignation.

  4. #4 by Bos on May 31, 2011 - 9:08 am

    Marcel,

    When will you stop doing the same trick over and over again. When you claim something, e.g. “Netherlands would be better off out of the Euro altogether”, you need to give some proof of this. Simply postulating it will not do. I know you as a PVV voter don’t care much about the rules of a proper argument, but still that is how a decent debate is done: exchanging ARGUMENTS and not simply postulating stuff.

    By the way, how do you feel about your Dutch government pressuring the Greeks in giving away even more of their ‘sovereignty’ to an international agency which would privatize the Greek economy. And how do you feel about the European Commission who says this would be a violation of Greek sovereignty.

    Turns your simplistic PVV world upside down no? :)

  5. #5 by Betterworld on May 31, 2011 - 5:29 pm

    The US will agree to a European head, the alternative is an outsider who will immediately become a focus of anger, increase the default agenda in Greece, Ireland and Portugal any one of which has the power to collapse the Euro.

    But ask yourself this – can the USD survive a precipitous collapse of the Euro? In a word, no.

    On the surface this is about the Euro, but the Euro is only the buffer against the real collapse that the G8 are trying to avert: the US dollar.

    That is why Timothy Gaitner (of all people) is the one calling the shots on the Irish government’s terms for the negotiation of the Irish bailout.

  6. #6 by Joe on June 1, 2011 - 4:11 pm

    To begin with, apart from a few efforts in Mexico, Argentina, Thailand, and Indonesia in past, the IMF has been entirely about being the lender of last resort to European states. It is cronyistic to have one European after another at its’ head, and especially strange to be using that facility when the states in question are EU member states who should be turning to either the EU, other EU member states, asset disposal, or borrowing on the open market.
    The intention of the IMF is to keep failign states from starting a chain reaction across borders, not to give ways of internal players in the EU from having to lend to one another.

    Imagine Washington telling a California or Florida state government to go hat in hand to the IMF if it had a bunch of muni bond defaults.

    The only reason anyone should go along with another European running the IMF, is if they aren’t going to employ the position as a part of some future political ambition. Can you imagine Strauss-Kahn quietly implying in a Presidential campaign that he did his best at teh IMF to “bring home the bacon?”

  7. #7 by Joe on June 1, 2011 - 5:39 pm

    Betterworld :The US will agree to a European head, the alternative is an outsider who will immediately become a focus of anger, increase the default agenda in Greece, Ireland and Portugal any one of which has the power to collapse the Euro.
    But ask yourself this – can the USD survive a precipitous collapse of the Euro? In a word, no.
    On the surface this is about the Euro, but the Euro is only the buffer against the real collapse that the G8 are trying to avert: the US dollar.
    That is why Timothy Gaitner (of all people) is the one calling the shots on the Irish government’s terms for the negotiation of the Irish bailout.

    The USD will not drop on a weakening Euro, because not that many US treasuries are held in Europe compared to Asia or the Near East. What is likely is that the US markets will drop on it as the S&P has been following the Euro-dollar rate fairly closely. It isn’t entirely clear to me why, other than to say that a soft dollar means higher commodities and industrial input prices in the US.

    One can also make the completely opposite argument: that a falling Euro will cause the hot money to flow out of Europe and into US banks and equities. In fact, if one conspiratorial allegation doesn’t work out, you can base another one on that financial dynamic! Either way, you get to keep your mental onanism going.

    That an “outsider” is appointed leading to becoming the focus of anger, I have to ask: who cares? Why would the world need to be held hostage by the “anger” of a few European commentators?”
    If non-participants who just want to get THEIR national in there to serve THEM, how do they rationalise that “anger” without displaying their obvious corrupt intentions?

    Aside from that how can a global institution have “an outsider”? Hire them in from another planet? Maybe you can gin up an angry tirade about Aliens from Area 51 in there or something…

    The IMF is not meant to be “by and for” Europe. The assumption is arrogant and ridiculous. It is funded by interest repayments and quotas of member states for which European member states represent about 1/3. It is there to be the back-stop for national default that might spread, not necessarily in the interest of those bailed out, but to avoid a chain-reaction accross borders.
    This does not make it a European piggy bank to the exclusion of others, including poor, heavily indebted nations and governments.

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