Amidst the commentary on the incredible protests breaking across the capitals of the Middle East, one of the most common reactions is that of suprise; European commentators seem genuinely startled to discover, that on their southern frontier there are peoples, equal in number to themselves, ready to stand, and be counted.
In many ways, however, our surprise is not surprising. For most of Europe’s modern history, the Arab world did not ‘exist’ – at least, not in the same way as India or China. By 1700, the ratio of Europeans to Arabs in the world stood at 6 to 1. By 1920, at the time when the British and French Empires had divided much of the region among themselves, the ratio had reached 13 to 1: that is to say, for every Arab in the world, there were 13 Europeans. The Middle East ‘existed’, therefore; but much in the same way as Canada, or Australasia: a large and empty land, beautiful, bountiful, and ripe for conquest. It is in this light that one can comprehend why the French thought it feasible in 1830 to annexe and colonise Algeria, or why, a century later, European Jews could attempt much the same in British Palestine.
The scale of the change since that time has been staggering. In 1920, the population of the Arab world was some 42 million, the same as the France of that era; today, it counts some 350 millions, equal to the entirety of western Europe. By 2030, the Arab world will be equal in size to the total of both western and eastern Europe combined (see figure above). While from one perspective, the Arab world may be considered an ancient civilisation, from another, therefore, it is brand new; as new, perhaps, as the United States or Australia.
The west has never come to terms with this new reality, this teeming mass on its southern flank. Despite much that has been written, by Edward Said and others, about the ‘Orientalism’ of the nineteenth century European imagination, the truth is that the Arab world has never been much of a feature in our intellectual landscape. We have never really had to think about the Middle East as anything more than a vast land rich with natural resources for the taking, and for much of the twentieth century we could manage it as such, first under colonial officials, and then under the makeshift monarchs and generals we have installed or supported in their place.
Today, the old structures are broken; and an Arabian society is being born. It is there: a mirror image of ourselves, a mass of 350 millions taking shape like our reflection in the Mediterranean ocean. How will Europe deal with this new creature, the multitude of once invisible peoples who have filled out the unfinished concrete slums of Cairo, huddle in the packed streets of Gaza, and mass at the mosques of Mecca and Medina?
While there are some worthy initiatives, such as the Alliance of Civilizations, I suspect events will outpace our attempts to manage them. The fate of the one genuinely European project, the now stalled Union for the Mediterranean, already offers a bad portent for future attempts to deal with migration, integration, and the stability of the Levant.
#1 by french derek on February 5, 2011 - 7:41 pm
You say that “whilst from one perspective, the Arab world may be considered an ancient civilisation, from another, therefore, it is brand new”. Absolutely correct.
Over the centuries, Persians, Turks, Arabians and others currently lumped together as “Arab” held huge – and fluctuating – empires. There were several centres of both military and intellectual power over time.
After the Ottoman Empire fell – and especially in the early decades of the 20th Century – Western European countries divided up the Middle East and North Africa amongst themselves (either through war or through treaties). Thus, Western Europe “created” what is now called by many “the Arab world”.
It would be foolish, though, to regard all of the varied and various peoples of “the Arab world” as one. They are more different than are Europeans one from another.
#2 by Anonymous on February 7, 2011 - 1:14 am
These demographic projections for the Arab world seem highly unlikely. There is no green revolution there – there is no greenery at all! Egyptians are complaining about the lack of jobs and high food prices already. However, their government has long subsidized the price of bread for the poor, while few of these grains are produced there. After the heat wave in Russia and floods in Australia governments with money (such as Saudi Arabia) started buying grains and driving up the prices. Egypt is as the point where its government simply cannot afford to feed the people.
All of the Arab states will face shortages of jobs, food, and finally water.
#3 by Pablo on February 7, 2011 - 2:14 pm
Arab world is not new agenda for Europe. Islam was forged for conquest and not far after the death of Mahoma the arabs were INSIDE Europe and there they remain for centuries. In their road, cristians all around Mediterranean well integrated with Europe then were submited and/or exterminated. Previously they took jews cities killing them or provoking an Exodus, so Foa’s vision of their return to their homeland is also false.
#4 by eslaporte on February 7, 2011 - 5:19 pm
You say that “Europe has never had to think about the Middle East.” I invite you to examine how collective foreign and security policy were born, through the “habit of cooperation” of European Political Cooperation. That first habit was borne out of conflicts and issues that the Community faced in the Middle East in the 1970s – and these issues could be addressed better by the Community as a whole. The main issues of the Copenhagen Conference of December 1973 by “the Nine” concerned oil and energy security, and also made a bold statement on European identity. Common foreign policies were also seen as a type of integration tool.
The European Community/Union is no stranger to the Middle East.
That said – the European Union has the tools and experience to guide (and even push) for democracy and freedom in the Middle East. The Union has done this throughout the world, along the lines of promoting European values. The EU should push for more inclusive societies, the expansions of opportunities for all and the redistribution of the wealth for all the the people.
Conflict and instability are also connected to poverty and economic instability, as well as poor governance. The Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements appear to be about economic, social, cultural cooperation that do not benefit the people, just the political and economic elites – and offer a good dose of “security” too.
Also – human rights should include freedom of expression, including freedom of religion, for all. It also appears that, in the name of “security” and “counter-terrorism” – brutal police forces look for “islamists and jihadists” – and have entrapped non-violent people just because they are pious Muslims. Oppression of religious freedom is not an acceptable “security policy” and “counter-terrorism strategy.” The maintenance of autocrats that squash religious freedoms are contrary to European values – as are Islamophobia notions about the idea of extending freedom and liberal democracy to Arab-Muslim nations!!!
#5 by Tony Camilleri on February 8, 2011 - 2:57 pm
The European Community/Union is no stranger to the Middle East.
Sure it is not eslaporte. It has meddled in the MIddle East through its member countries for a very long time.
Who does not remember the British, French, German and other meddling in the Middle East?
Who does not remember the meddling in Iraq and Iran and the decision on the Iran/Iraq/Kuwait frontier whilst sipping a cup of tea by the British colonialists?
Who does not remember the interference of the French in Lebanon, the fomenting by the British and the USA in 1952 of civil unrest against Mohammed Mossadeq in Iran because he had nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, Persia at the time, to put the despotic Shah back in power after he had escaped but was put back in power because he served the colonialists in whatever they wanted?
Who does not remember the Suez invasion because the British wanted to get back the Suez to get back the income that they had lost when Nasser had nationalized it?
Who doesn’t the remember the British Suez Military BAse which was a series of military bases along the Suez Canal which had cost Britain the fantastic amount of £500 Million before the war?
How about the British and the USA getting kicked out of the Wheelus Air Base when Gaddafi deposed the Libyan king?
How about the Italian atrocities in Libya, Ethiopia, Eritrea and elsewhere?
How about the Belgians massacres in what was called the Belgian Congo?
How about the German colonies in the rest of Africa?
How about the French massacres of those demanding independence in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco?
How about the British colonialism in India and the Far East?
How about Spain and Portugal in South America and the still Spanish enclaves in Morocco?
Of course there was meddling by the European mainland countries, not only in the Middle East but throughout the world.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost and the EU of which these and other European countries form part have to face the consequences of their previous actions.
#6 by Joe on February 8, 2011 - 7:47 pm
Yes, and in 2029, I predict Arabs will still be paranoiacly delusional, shooting themselves in the foot, blaming things on imaginary enemies, and inciting violence worldwide. Just as they have since the early 60′s.
#7 by Blue Horizon on February 9, 2011 - 6:26 pm
Arabs? WHO are the Arabs? Why do we lump together a wide range of ethnicities under the title ‘Arab’ just because they speak various dialects of Arabic.
We used to call ‘Greek’ anyone who belonged to the Orthodox faith (from Crete to Moscow). And we said ‘Slav’ for anyone who spoke a Slavic tongue.
The Druze are totally different to the Copts, who are eons away from the Palestinians. The Saudi Arabians are nothing like the Syrians who consist of different nations.
It is time that the nations that are artificially titled ‘Arab’, find their own voice.
#8 by Anonymous on February 10, 2011 - 10:29 am
@ #7
They call themselves Arabs so you needn’t worry.
#9 by Anonymous on February 10, 2011 - 10:36 am
@ #1
Wrong, Persians and Turks have never been titled Arab, and rightly so. The Arab world, roughly speaking, stretches from Morocco till Iraq. The Persian, or more specifically Iranian branch are distinct peoples, and the same applies for the Turkic peoples.
The Muslim world on the other hand, encompasses them all. So I guess what I’m trying to tell you is don’t mix up the notion Arab world to the one of Muslim world.
#10 by Tony Camilleri on February 10, 2011 - 2:22 pm
Anonymous Nothing against Arabs, but you would insult an Iranian and others if you call them Arabs.
#11 by Roberto Foa on February 10, 2011 - 2:41 pm
Just to clarify, the figures and chart in the article include only Arab countries, and not Turkey or Iran.
#12 by L.Bernstein on February 11, 2011 - 10:19 am
As the late Yassir Arafat said, and was quoted, in Newsweek, (I think), c.30 years ago:
THE WOMB OF THE ARAB WOMAN WILL WIN THE WAR.
#13 by Michael Rupp on February 13, 2011 - 7:52 pm
While I believe that the EU has to strengthen its policy for the region further, I believe it is highly mistaken to think of the Southern shores of the Mediterranean as one entity as the author seems to suggest. Surely it is a poetic and beautiful picture: “an Arabian society is being born. It is there: a mirror image of ourselves, a mass of 350 millions taking shape like our reflection in the Mediterranean ocean.” Yet we should not be mistaken. The different societies and states have very different ancient, medieval and very recent histories, very different social structures and different political and social cultures. The EU can not speak with one Arab society and will need to have a multitude of different policy instruments and policies flexible enough for different requirements. Dr Michael Rupp
#14 by Roberto Foa on February 14, 2011 - 6:51 pm
Michael, BH,
I agree – there’s about as much diversity to the south of the Mediterranean, as there is to the north of it. But just as there is a thread that unites European societies into a single historical civilisation, likewise a strong thread unites the Arab world. It is a constellation of countries both as connected, and as diverse, as ourselves. And it is relatively new, historically speaking. So that is then the reflection staring back at us.
#15 by dcm on February 15, 2011 - 6:08 pm
Arab societies are a reflection but not a mirror image. They are the exact inverse of Europe when it comes to women’s rights, the rights of religious and sexual minorities, the death penalty, or making progress to a low carbon economy. I predict the rise of the Arab world, democratic or otherwise, will be more of a challenge to the European ideal and to Europe’s soft power than you can possibly imagine.