The Muslim Brothers and the Salafis have three things in common. First, both are in favour of political Islam. Secondly, both Muslim Brothers and Salafis were surprised to win the first elections in Egypt that big. And the two first are the reasons why – thirdly – they deeply hate each other.
The Egyptian elections are organised in three phases. In each phase nine governorates vote for party-lists and for independent candidates in a majority system. The independent candidates need to have an absolute majority in order to be elected, which means a second round in most of the cases. On the elections of 28 November the Freedom and Justice Party of the Muslim Brotherhood had forty percent of the votes, the Salafis a surprising twenty four percent. And this in the most liberal governorates of Egypt.
Now (14-15 December) Egyptians have to vote in nine other – more conservative – governorates. The political battle is not anymore about a Islamic or a liberal state. Now it is clearly a brutal confrontation between the Muslim Brothers and the more extreme Salafis. That would be no problem, at least not a democratic one, if both parties would not use all possible means to gain votes. And if I say all, it means literally all means. I give you some examples of seen and reported frauds.
In Suez a judge (who is controlling the elections) is seen to sign ballot papers for voters, voting for El-Nour, the Salafi-party.
Also in Suez, Salafis were convincing people waiting in long rows to vote for them. Activists who were filming this forbidden campaigning have been arrested.
In another polling station in Suez voters were not allowed to put their ballot paper in the ballot box themselves.
In Gerla-Sohag, a huge banner of El-Nour was hanging above the entrance of the polling station.
In Giza (a more liberal area) a polling station has been closed down after there was gunfire around a very calm row of waiting voters.
This is just a limited list of irregularities which in normal democratic elections could only result in new, better organised elections, at least for those areas where the game wasn’t played by the rules. Now it is already clear that in the next few days a long list of electoral frauds will become public. There goes the illusion of so many Egyptians that the most conservative Muslims are also the most honest people. But more important is: what will be the consequence?
A couple of days ago the Egyptian writer, Alaa Al-Aswany, told me the military is using double standards. Where the liberals and revolutionaries have to follow the law scrupulously, the Islamist parties can almost do whatever they want. The liberal side has been accused of foreign money (which they have not) while nothing is done with the proven payment of 300 million Egyptian pounds of someone in the Gulf to an Islamist party. The Minister who made this payment public, told the press he forgot to whom it was paid.
I am not going to say that the liberal parties are losing the elections only because of this kind of Islamist fraud. They are too divided to be strong and their campaign is almost only concentrated on being against the Islamist parties instead of promoting their own plans for the future of Egypt. But if Egypt wants to be called a democracy, the rule of law must apply for all parties. Until now the Supreme Council of Armed Forces prefers the rule that all parties are equal but some are more equal than others.
#1 by Victor on December 15, 2011 - 2:38 am
There are two models so far:
1) Turkey, the military blocks democracy by opposing Islamization of the state;
2) Pakistan, the military blocks democracy by facilitating Islamization of the state.
All democratizing countries with strong militaries suffer enormously because the armed forces usually have a privileged economic position.
The military knows the support it would receive from liberal forces is seen by those forces as a lesser evil (and due to be temporary).
But probably, in the short term, it is better that the Islamists win and have to show their ability to deal with economic problems during the transition.
The only issue is whether the new constitutional texts allow liberal democracy to flourish later.
Yet, as we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan more recently, political culture matters much more than constitutional provisions.
#2 by Wim on December 19, 2011 - 2:36 pm
It is well known that countries need a large middle class and a certain level of wealth before it can be really democratic. Tunisia and Turkey qualify, but Egypt certainly doesn’t. Its revolution was just a copycat revolution. It would most probably have been suppressed if it hadn’t been supported by a coalition of Islamist Gulf states and a delusional Clinton who can’t resist the attractions of regime change.
It looks like Egypt will no go through an instable period and we can only hope for the best. But it is already clear that its economy is considerably damaged.
#3 by Don on December 26, 2011 - 5:21 pm
Why all this pussy footing around the truth? Egypt is a lost cause, period. An Islamist group with a very radical outlook on all things un-koranic, is chafing at the bit to take over. Democracy and all that entails is not on their agenda, never was. When (no longer if) they do takeover, bitter infighting will start, then Egypt will slide down the tubes. The West has to wake up and recognise this fact.
#4 by Abdullah on January 13, 2012 - 11:05 pm
Interesting how all of a sudden every cares about the political state in egypt now that the dictator who was propping up secularism for the benefit of the west alone. Had it been for the good of his people, egypt would be flourishing, but all that was served was the interest of the elite (militry and politcal) and of course israel and the US.
This whole barrage of sudden interest from extreme secularists from the west sickens me. It is a form of fundementalism which is harmful to any society. I red a quote “Increasingly the doctrine of human rights is claimed to be the single universal framework within which all views must fit. One might say it has all the hallmarks of a proselytising religion and advocates the adoption of a particular world view which does not necessarily reflect the views of individuals in some religious cultures”
Give the muslim parties a go, let them learn from a chance in power before shooting them down because they werent the ones the WEST wanted to win!