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Posts Tagged ‘European President’

No, no, no, no, no!

No, no, no, no, no, no!  Has it really come to this? Is the selection of the two highest representatives of the European Union to be reduced to some shabby horse-trading to find a lowest common denominator?  Is the appointment of those who will now lead the Union into discussions with prime ministers and presidents across the world to be done in a way that would make even eighteenth century leaders wince?

Consider: at a special summit this coming Thursday evening – which may drag on into the next day – the leaders of the 27 member states of the EU will sit down to appoint their semi-permanent President.  Whoever is chosen will find themselves the focus of world media attention, whether the appointee (or anyone else) likes it or not.

They will also consider who should be the Union’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy – another post (in effect the Union’s Secretary of State) whose holder will be key in securing the EU’s position in negotiations with other states across the globe.

Member States will also appoint a Secretary-General of the European Council – a lesser post and one not in the international limelight – but nevertheless one with considerable influence.  These three positions will be considered jointly, as some sort of ‘team.’

Don’t underestimate the potential capacity of whoever is appointed to these posts to influence the development of the Union internally and to project its interests across the world.   On their shoulders will depend in large part whether the Union continues in its present status of economic giant and political pygmy, or whether at last it begins to exert real influence over the issues that matter to Europeans – climate change, human rights, democracy, terrorism, international development, a secure world order – in an otherwise new bipolar world of the USA and China.

To the world outside whoever is chosen will embody the European ideal. Like it or not, the President and the High Representative will become, in media eyes, Europe’s ‘shop window,’ even if they are not so regarded by Europe’s own citizens.

So let us look at how the Union is proposing to appoint these two key representatives.   The process appears to break every possible rule in the book.  And ‘appoint’ it is. Despite their political nature, any element of direct democracy – even consultative – is ruled out.

There isn’t even a clear understanding of what the jobs entail.  In the case of the High Representative various internal duties have been laid down, but his or her role on the world stage and relationship with the President of the Council has not been thought through.  Besides with one foot in the Commission and the other in the Council the High Representative will serve two masters – always a recipe for chaos.

The Presidency is equally blighted.  Some states want a low-key, backroom ‘fixer.’  Others want someone who can take a rightful place beside Presidents Obama and Hu.

An immediate fault line thus runs right through the selection process between those who want actors who will promote the EU across the world and those who want people who are focused downwards and inwards.

So member states will meet on Thursday to make appointments to positions whose fundamental requirements have not yet been determined.  At best this is a recipe for a complete impasse.  At worst for appointing someone who represents the lowest common denominator.

One might as well pick names randomly out of a hat.  Indeed the process is worse than that.  Names picked out of a hat would presumably not be subject to veto by a member state with an axe to grind.

And veto they will – even the best candidates will be vetoed if they do not fit with other members of  ‘the team,’ according to an arbitrary set of complex political criteria.

We are thus not looking to find the best people for the job, but for a slate, artificially ‘balanced’ between left-wing and right-wing; between large countries and small; between old member states and new; between male and female; between charismatic candidates and non-charismatic candidates and between federalists and inter-governmentalists.

Nor do we want, apparently, candidates with political ‘baggage’ (like being from a country not in the euro) even if this is completely irrelevant when it comes to doing the job.

Moreover, tradition dictates that candidates should not declare themselves. This makes the whole process appear even more arcane and secretive. Former Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga (herself a candiadate for the Presidency) likened the process to embracing a ‘Soviet style contempt for the public.’

And she is right. The Swedish Presidency running this bizarre appointment process knows that we lecture less happier lands on good governance – on correct appointment procedures.  We send in consultants.  We try to ensure appointments on merit – or else, if they are political appointments, by free and fair election.

Yet at the heart of what Newsweek Magazine last week called ‘The Modest Superpower’ we are about to make three highly important political appointments, which we have yet to define properly, without a whiff of democracy and via an appointment process designed to make it impossible to select the best man or woman for the job on merit alone.  Worse, all will be wheeled and dealed behind closed doors. What a shameful and disgraceful position to find ourselves in!

So what can be done? Despite knowing about these appointments, literally for years, no attempt has been made to ascertain precisely what we want from these roles.  Nor has any real attention been given to the selection process.  That is an indictment both of member states and European Institutions.  We may be a modest superpower but at the moment we have much to be modest about.

Why rush these appointments? Would it not be better to take a little longer and to get them right?

What needs to be done?  First, reach agreement as to what the roles should entail and how the incumbents should relate to each other.  Secondly,  have declared candidates, prepared to offer a manifesto. Thirdly, there has to be an element of democracy involved – a consultative on-line referendum, perhaps.  Not ideal and not of course binding, but something to give a guide.   And fourthly, the final decision should be confirmed (as it will be for the High Representative) by the European Parliament.   Let’s not rush this.

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Hallowe’en Reflections

Last Saturday – Hallowe’en – I was having dinner with some friends at the elegant house of my French neighbour.  We started with slim slivers of chorizo sausage – she has always been extraordinarily fond of Spain, so much so that she learned Spanish at the age of 12 and wrote up all her school notes in it.  At least it stopped others from copying her homework, she used to say.

The chorizo was followed by what she called ‘Bat Soup.’  And so may it have been, for the liquid was thick and black. The sort of thing one imagines Macbeth’s witches may have kept in their cauldrons.  But this had been through a blender and so was richly smooth and tasty.  I suspect it was made with lentils rather than bats, but anyway it was just the thing to keep out the dark and blowy autumnal weather through which the local children struggled with their pumpkin lanterns and pointed hats, trick-or-treating on the street outside.

After a suitable ‘pause’  we turned our attentions to some excellent organic chicken; but I won’t go on with the culinary delights of the French table. I mention the chicken and the lentils; they will do for a starter.  They have an interest beyond the gastronomic as we shall see.

Not surprisingly, this being the Saturday after the ending of the European Council – which seems to have ended with even less substantial agreement than European Councils traditionally end with these days – our dinner-table talk turned quickly from ghosts and ghouls to the European Union and what my mother-in-law would have called its ‘doings.’  Specifically, we turned to who should not occupy the post that is – as I predicted it would be – now called ‘President of Europe,’ at least in the public imagination.

Richard Laming makes an interesting point in his excellent Federal Union blog (29 October) – contrasting the general lack of public interest – even at times among the political parties – in the (indirectly) elected President of the European Commission with the rather greater public interest in who might eventually take the Chair (the presidency) of the European Council.

This post is created by the (still unsigned) Lisbon Treaty and is in the gift of the 27 member state governments who, at the time of asking, continue to be rather at sea over what they want the person appointed actually to do. They would be more comfortable, I suspect, choosing someone to put on a plinth than having to make a difficult decision about a job that inevitably (if it is to be done usefully) will involve some measure of their being coerced.

This defining of the job, you might have thought, should really come before getting down to the business of assessing candidates.  Phrases about carts and horses spring to mind.  Do you, or do you not want someone to stop the traffic?

One of the informal (but nevertheless significant) conclusions of last week’s European Council is that Tony Blair is now out of the race.  Barring a resurrection from the dead worthy of Hallowe’en itself I cannot see a revival of his chances.  He  does excite strong personal anathema (I was the only one to defend him last Saturday) though why any British person would rather have a non-Briton appointed to such a post, I find hard to fathom.  Would France try to exclude one of its own, I wonder?

The popular press complains endlessly about how ‘Brussels’ forces us to eat straight cucumbers and bent bananas and do strange things with olive oil.  Why then when the bookies odds-on favourite for the job is (or at least was) a Briton and a winner of three elections to boot we should turn against him quite so furiously is a mystery worthy of Agatha Christie.  Still popular outcry is a form of faux-democracy, I suppose.

Real democracy (even in some indirect form) in connection with these Lisbon posts is of course ruled out.  The member states would never countenance undermining the stature of their own elected heads.  But in the absence of democracy, surely we owe it to the taxpayers of Europe to secure, on merit, the best available person for the job.

Blair may be out of the running but the discussion remains about – in the occupational psychologist’s phrase – ‘fitting the job to the man (or woman)’ -  choosing someone and then seeing what they can do – rather than on ‘fitting the man to the job’ – that is deciding what skills the ‘President of Europe’ requires and then appointing the best candidate on merit – regardless of gender, party allegiance or anything else.

The tragedy of the present proposals is that they offer neither merit nor democracy – a formula that may have an all too predictable outcome.

Look at the recent European Council.  Its conclusions are a forest of loose ends, particularly over climate change.  In a field where Europe could once claim unity and leadership, we risk becoming a fractious – and leaderless – also-ran.

Moreover, given that we are little more than a month away from the potentially world-changing Copenhagen climate conference, the European Union needed to be able to demonstrate its coherence by reaching agreement both on its contributions to developing world assistance – the ‘burden’ -  and on how that burden was to be shared internally.  It failed.

But need it have failed?  It is far from impossible to imagine that a charismatic and authoritative President of the Council could have brought events to a happier and more determined set of conclusions and carried the result through to Copenhagen. I continue to believe that Blair, for instance, could have secured a better result.  But what is passed is passed.  The important thing now is to recognise the actual job to be done: a big, heavyweight job if Europe is not to be eclipsed.

Any President will also need to be persuasive far beyond the Council.  For instance new reports of the threat posed by intensive livestock production (one report suggests that, with its ancillary activities, livestock rearing now generates 51 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions) suggest we shall need persuading to end our growing dependency on corn-fed meat, switching to foodstuffs and rearing systems that place less of a load on the environment.

Like chicken and lentils, perhaps?  And slice that chorizo extra fine, please.

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At the End of Ratification Road a Democratic Chasm Looms

Well, it looks as though we are slowly coming to the end of Ratification Road.  We mustn’t speak too soon, of course: the Czech constitutional court and President Vaclav Klaus could still, even now, contrive to throw a gigantic spanner in the works leaving the Lisbon Treaty moribund again and the European Union’s constitutional melting pot boiling for many more years to come.

But I don’t think this is likely.  With President Klaus’ recent railway metaphors about coming to the end of the line and his strong hints that he will sign what he regards as a supremely wretched document, Europe will soon have won itself its Constitutional Treaty.

A decade or so has now elapsed since the events that caused Europe’s then leaders to conclude that the Union’s machinery of government was badly in need of overhaul, especially if it was to accommodate another twelve new members.

The principal of these events was the Treaty of Nice – or rather the fractious Intergovernmental Conference – that, after several days and nights of haggling, finally agreed on something that no-one really thought worthy of taking the EU into the new millennium.

Indeed, agreement was only reached on the basis that the constitutional issues would be re-visited in the near future in a form that allowed for greater reflection.

This led to the Laeken Declaration of 2001 and later to the Constitutional Convention which, at the time, most people thought a sensible way to proceed.  Whether they would, with the benefit of hindsight, have done the same thing today knowing the difficulties that would be encountered is a judgement we shall have to leave to history.  At least one former head of government expressed his private doubts about the possibility of ratifying such a constitutional treaty.  Maybe others did as well, but no-one wanted to rock the boat.

One of the reasons for the many ratification difficulties has been the EU’s continuing democratic deficit, which almost certainly contributed in large part to the failed French and Dutch referenda of 2005.

Simply put, this is the subconscious feeling that if you don’t like the way the EU is being managed it is very hard to do anything about it.  Laeken acknowledged this. Indeed its twin pillars were democracy and improving the EU’s internal workings.  In the event the former was largely sacrificed to the latter.  Although the European Parliament did get some additional powers, it is  doubtful whether Europe’s citizens feel the EU to be any more democratic as a result.

Let’s move on ten years and look back to the present, assuming the Lisbon Treaty has come into force.  What will people judge its legacy to be?  The internal workings of the Union, voting and so on, are largely covert and pass unnoticed by folk in general. What people will observe, I think, is the continuing shift in power from the Union’s institutions – and chiefly the Commission – towards the member states.  This they will attribute to the Lisbon Treaty but, as this shift has been gathering pace for the past ten years, I doubt whether Lisbon can be held responsible.

No, the major visible part of Lisbon will be the posts the Treaty creates: a European President and Secretary of State – as people tell me not to call them.  But I will persist in calling them by these titles because I believe that whoever will actually hold the post of President of the European Council – even if they are uncharismatic and barely known committee men or women – will nonetheless become de facto presidents simply as a result of the attention of the world’s media and, to a lesser extent, the attentions of the public, both in Europe and abroad.

They will be photographed with their wives and children, getting off aeroplanes and opening conferences. Holiday snaps will appear in the tabloids. Their indiscretions and their dress sense will be picked over.  Their faces will be caricatured, their actions lampooned. And they will be forced by events to rise above this froth and to act presidentially.

As an aside I have always felt that it would be better to pick someone able to cope with all this presidential paraphernalia.  I have expressed my preference for Tony Blair as someone who, despite serious shortcomings, will at least not fall flat in week one of the job. But it is not the case that Blair would shape the role into a presidential one while Balkenende (say) would not: it is the external pressures, the media, public, events, that will shape the role. It is the Kissinger dictum (when I pick up the phone to Europe who do I call?)

The same goes for the Secretary of State (Foreign Minister or High Representative).  Again events will drive whoever holds that position towards a prominent role on the world stage and perhaps into a potentially damaging power struggle with the President.

The occupants of these posts will be the visible outcome of the Lisbon Treaty. They will, I predict, have a great effect on how Europe is portrayed on the world stage and in international relations.  They may have little authority on paper; but de facto they will be the faces of post-Lisbon Europe.

And yet this is a far from commonly held view. Mr Barroso may be disturbed at the thought of Tony Blair taking the President’s role and upstaging him at international events where it is, at the moment, the Commission President who speaks for the European Union.  But he will be upstaged whoever is appointed.

What these posts will do, however, is to shine a spotlight on the EU’s democratic deficit. By whose authority, it will be asked, does Blair (or Balkenende or any of the others) speak for me?

It seems incredible that in the 16 months that have elapsed between the two Irish referenda so little attention has been paid to questions surrounding the appointment, duties and general management of these posts.  Public debate has been noticeable by its absence.  A democratic time-bomb is ticking.

Back in 2001 the Laeken Declaration identified the democratic deficit problem. Aspects of the Lisbon Treaty will compound this. A chasm looms. It is urgent that the Swedish Presidency at the summit at the end of this month gives thought to injecting some democratic mechanism, however slight or unsatisfactory into these two Lisbon appointments.

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Blowing in the Wind

What does ‘Europe’ mean?  Indeed, what should it mean?  The original idea seems clear enough: to bring European countries together within a binding arrangement in order better to develop such activities that cross borders and whose successful accomplishment would bring mutual economic and social benefits.

This would make future wars between European nations difficult if not impossible; it would also create the wealth and leisure to allow Europeans to travel, to learn, to engage in cultural activities and sport and to pool their research skills.  It would also make it possible – with others -  to wage a more powerful battle for European values and human rights across the world.

Of course, Europe wasn’t built in a day.  It just sometimes looks that way. The construction is far from finished. Indeed one of the problems is that no-one actually has a vision of the final edifice.  The builders just lay one brick on top of another, and one brick beside another, in the hope that one day the building will be complete.

Yet inevitably as the edifice has grown it has become more complex and difficult to manage. Today the need for leadership and direction to give form to the European construction has never been more acute just as it has never been more absent.   In that absence dissonant voices pull in different directions from every side.

Some cry ‘forward,’ others ‘back,’  and between these two extremes – between those who would create a kind of Bundeseuropa  and those who would bury the EU altogether, lie a million more nuanced approaches.

Nevertheless, all have one thing in common: a feeling that Europe today lies blowing in the wind.  True, few want to destroy its fundamental achievements – the Single Market, the Single Currency, Freedom of Movement and so on – but the feeling is that these could be largely be maintained by a less complex and unwieldy institutional framework.

Others inquire, what are we really trying to do here?  They ask whether the moral impetus for peace, international development, human rights, management of the economy and so on has not moved today from the restricted and tightly managed forum of the European Union and away to the broader and freer acres of the G20?

In the G20 Europe’s larger states, their leaders and their civil servants, can strut upon a world stage. Financial regulation, terrorism, climate change, international development, the reform of world institutions, these are the big global deals to be done. This is where the cutting edge of world politics is being honed.  This is where the European Union is being left behind.

Europe may have enlarged geographically but it has not enlarged politically. Large member states have been willing to share some of their largesse, but not their power or prestige, whether with smaller states or with the Union as a whole.  The idea that the larger states might submit to the authority of some enhanced European institution seems today further away than ever.

Twenty years ago, with the Cold War ending, we might have contemplated the idea that come the new millennium Britain and France would give up their permanent status on the UN’s Security Council in favour of a European Union seat.  Today, that seems as fanciful a notion as ever. Indeed, it is more likely that another seat or seats will be created to accommodate countries such as Germany.

The larger states, and the European Council that they dominate, have reduced the European Commission – intended to be the directional motor of the Continent – almost to irrelevance so far as substantial political initiatives are concerned.  Since the millennium the Commission has been driven from its position of a Directory to become little more than a Secretariat.

This is at least part of the reason why Europe today hangs, as it does, blowing in the wind.  It wouldn’t be entirely fair to blame Mr Barroso, the Commission President: the slope was already slippery when he took over, but he hasn’t done much to halt the slide.

True, we are in the middle of a discomforting and embarrassing constitutional hiatus. Mr Barroso, so far the only candidate for President of the next Commission, awaits his fate at the hands of the European Parliament, who, later this month, may or may not confirm his nomination made unanimously by Member States.

He has been setting out his agenda during the past few days, playing for votes among the Socialists and the Greens whose support he needs.  Estimates put his chance of success at about 70 per cent.

Still, there are no other declared candidates, unless one includes the French Prime Minister, François Fillon, who has let it be known,  apparently, that if Barroso falls he will pick up the centre-right’s standard and step into the breech. Somehow one detects French President Sarkozy’s finger prints.  What is good for Europe is good for France – a Talleyrand policy still being vigorously pursued.

Coincidentally, the 70 per cent mark may also represent the chances of the Lisbon Treaty securing a ‘yes’ vote in the second Irish referendum on October 2nd.  What had looked a solid change of mind, based on a change in economic realities since the first referendum just before recession struck savagely at Ireland’s economy, has become brittle with votes drifting from ‘yes’ to ‘don’t know’ and from ‘don’t know’ to ‘no.’

Without the Lisbon Treaty, Europe will have no proper Commission at all after 23 November when the present Commission’s term expires. There is talk of caretaker arrangements, but who will serve and for how long is moot.  What is certain is that a caretaker Commission would have even less power vis à vis the European Council.  Nor would there be a European President or Foreign Minister if Lisbon falls.

As an aside we may note that if Barroso is confirmed, and if the Irish do vote ‘yes,’ then one of these two jobs will almost certainly fall to a woman, seeing as the fourth high European office – the President of the European Parliament – has also gone to a man. Interesting possibilities abound to which we shall have to return.

Even if Ireland votes ‘yes,’ the Treaty will still have to be signed off in three other countries – a process unlikely to be immediate.  Whatever happens Europe will remain blowing in the wind a while longer.

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Only Side Windows in Spaceship Berlaymont

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It is 40 years since I watched the first moon landing live, or almost live, on a black and white television one fine summer morning.  Neil Armstrong stepped down from ‘Eagle,’ the lunar module, and through the crackles of space and the confines of his helmet pronounced those words about ‘a giant leap for mankind’ that have resonated ever since.

As the first man on the moon Neil Armstrong subsequently became a celebrity and absurdly fashionable to the extent that hairs from his head would sell for $50. Unlike that of subsequent moon men, whose accomplishment was promptly forgotten to the extent that no-one now even remembers their names, Armstrong’s celebrity status became oppressive. To survive, he elected to become a recluse.

In this he followed his boyhood hero – the pioneer Charles Lindbergh – the first man to fly from New York to Paris.  Lindbergh succeeded just hours after his French competitors, Nungesser and Coli, had disappeared into the fastness of the Atlantic Ocean.  For some unfathomable reason the two Frenchmen chose to make the trip westwards – from Paris to New York – thereby flying against the prevailing winds. They didn’t make it.

Lindbergh might have had a rather more comfortable future had L’Oiseau Blanc, the French aeroplane, not been overcome by ice or had not birds perhaps flown into the engine.   The remains of Nungesser and Coli’s craft are thought to lie near the French Laurentian islands of St Pierre-et-Miquelon, well known for their freezing fogs and where a search is currently continuing.  So near, so far.

Still unaware of their fate, Lindbergh took off from a muddy field outside New York, hauling the single-engined flying fuel tank that was the ‘Spirit of St Louis’ into the air and setting course along the Great Circle route for Paris,  which destination (up the Seine, twice around the Eiffel tower and then look for the lights of Le Bourget) he finally achieved, despite problems with ice, with falling asleep, and getting so lost that he had to ask directions out of the window while circling an Irish trawler.

Like Armstrong, he had no idea that his biggest problem would not be the flight (in 1927 Paris must have seemed as distant as the moon) but the ensuing celebrity. Enjoyable at first, it later became crushing. Lindbergh’s infant son was kidnapped for ransom and later killed. The man himself became a recluse, devising elaborate routines to keep himself hidden from public view; routines that were later copied and imitated by Armstrong.

Strangely enough, another instance connects the two men. Neither the ‘Spirit of St Louis’ nor ‘Eagle,’ the first piloted craft to land upon the moon, possessed front facing windows, something considered vital in most vehicles.

In the case of ‘Spirit of St Louis’ the triangular space where the windscreen might have been was taken by yet another fuel tank. And in the lunar module? Well – I won’t do all the work for my readers.

So when a computer course proved faulty and with just a few seconds of fuel remaining, Armstrong had to land manually, he could only steer the craft by looking out of a passenger window. Lindbergh did have a species of periscope but mostly he had to turn crab-wise to get a bearing.

Should any readers have followed me thus far they may well be asking what any of this has to do with the European political scene.  Well, it is simply this: hearing again about the moon landings and the side windows made me think that this seemed an apt analogy for how Europe’s political leadership struggles to guide the European construction.

Whereas Lindbergh and Armstrong could, to a certain extent, turn sideways to see what lay before them, our European leaders seem incapable of doing the same thing. As a result they constantly run head-on into problems which they have not perceived, but which are clear to anyone outside Spaceship Berlaymont.

Looking through the side windows, our leaders see only what is passing. They are therefore given to projecting their plans into the future as if it were a blank space.  Moreover, since the configuration of their craft does not actually permit them to view the terrain ahead, they perceive it as they would like it to be, rather than as it actually is. It is, sadly, the common fault of visionaries.

This in part explains why European leaders have been taken aback by successive democratic ‘shocks:’ in Ireland twice, in France (almost twice if you count the whiskered Maastricht result) in Denmark and in the Netherlands. It explains why confidence in the European leadership is at such a low ebb and why, despite great efforts, interest in and turnout for the European Parliament elections is pathetic given their potential importance.

Looking out of the side windows today the focus is all on the Lisbon Treaty and the second Irish referendum. It is not on the future – on what is likely to happen when Lisbon is in place. The Irish, shocked by the recession that has ravaged their buoyant economy, will probably be cowed into voting ‘yes’ this second time round. But would they be voting ‘yes’ had their been no recession?

Isn’t the real problem which, with their front vision occluded, European leaders cannot see, the fact that ordinary people have no control over the direction in which they are being taken?  Over what is being done in their name?

And now, in this already febrile consensus, Europeans will find they have foist upon them, in sudden and grotesque manner, a new college of European Commissioners, a new Foreign Minister – in effect a European Secretary of State – new Presidents of the European Parliament, of the European Commission, and a President of the European Council who will doubtless become the grandest panjandrum of them all, a European President seated beside Obama, Medvedev and Hu in global councils.

We are probably but a few months from all this but, with few exceptions, the runners in this glittering race are hidden away from public view: no names, no policies, no programmes.
All will be selected behind closed doors in a stitch-up between countries and between parties.

This, I predict, will cause trouble ahead – it is our moon rushing up to meet us. But as they look through their side windows, it is one our leaders are still failing to see.

Photograph is courtesy of NASA

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