Posts Tagged ‘Cyprus’

Here in Britain we are being kept interested or aggravated by the inquiry the government is holding into the decision to go to war in Iraq in 2003.

Ever since that ill-fated invasion, and indeed even before it, a growing number of people have wanted to indict its authors – and in particular Britain’s then Prime Minister Tony Blair – on charges ranging from incompetence to war criminality.

Despite there already having been several inquiries into this imbroglio and there being few facts that have not already been disclosed, the Government has yielded to pressure and allowed the present full inquiry under Lord Chilcot.

Plenty of people, including Baroness Ashton now Europe’s High Representative for Foreign Policy, were convinced at the time by Mr Blair’s rhetoric.  Many now claim they were misled and that had they known then what they know now, they would have have behaved differently.  ‘Blair lied to us about Weapons of Mass Destruction, having already ‘signed in blood’ a secret deal with George Bush to topple Saddam.’ Or so they allege.

This language of Victorian melodrama was indeed employed by Blair then and is being retailed now.  Its colour might have given some souls a clue to its veracity.  The claim that mass destructive weapons (which included simple gas shells) could be launched in 45 minutes, for instance.  Blair also declared bravely that Saddam had rockets capable of reaching British bases in Cyprus, though why Saddam should ever have wanted to attack a British base in Cyprus was not explained. Perhaps someone supposed he was in the pay of bin-Laden!

Indeed, those who believed Blair’s suppositions seem also to have a singular faith in the guidance capability of Saddam’s non-existent rockets.  To hit the island of Cyprus would, after all, have been some achievement; the idea that Iraqi rockets could be targeted to hit the NAAFI building at Akrotiri, was just fanciful.

Even the 45 minute claim was melodramatic.  What is the point of a weapon of mass destruction if you can’t launch it in 45 minutes, you might reasonably ask?  The three-quarter hour ‘warning’ – so reminiscent of the Cold War – struck me as a desperate attempt to frighten us into submission.

All this was pretty clear before the fatal vote for war.  So claiming that you were misled is really just sophistry.  Besides, there was the little question of legality.

For members of the European Union, going to war must surely only be something undertaken  with the full-hearted consent of the United Nations.  This clearly wasn’t the case with Iraq.

Any competent lawyer can make a case out the muddy vacuum of several oblique United Nations resolutions.  Especially when the lawyer will never have to defend his client in court.  But because a case can be made, it does not mean that the case is justified. No resolution to authorise war was put because it would have failed.  The war was illegal.

This bothers me though others are more concerned about the loss of life – both the lives of British and Allied servicemen and the lives of Iraqis, though at the time few seemed to foresee that an invasion would trigger a sustained insurgency;  that the overthrow of Saddam and the Baathists could not be compared with the overthrow of communism in eastern Europe.

Nor how terrible and destabilising this insurgency would become to the whole Middle East. From being a bulwark against Al-Quaeda, Iraq became a gateway.  From being a counterpoint to Iran, it provided a weapon for Iran to wield against the West.

Yet this is not to say that there would have not also been pain if the invasion had not taken place.  It seems erroneous to assume that if there had been no invasion politics would have stood still; that people would not have died, violently;  that the Middle East would have been stable.  Yes, the coalition drew a low card – but we cannot guarantee that  other cards would definitely have been higher.

One aspect of the war that did much damage but which I suspect will not be tackled by the inquiry is the European dimension.  The war split ‘old Europe’ from ‘new Europe’ and indeed even ‘old Europe’ was far from united. Europe’s disunity suggested that while a Common Foreign and Security Policy might be fine in theory it evidently wasn’t so in practice.  In this respect the war has set Europe back as a force for peace, order and moral authority, for at least a generation.

So Europe has to learn to act together again and to act within the UN system to promote better governance at the global level.  The job of repairing this legacy is now in the hands of Baroness Ashton. She has to show the leadership that will convince Europe’s member states to pull together.  It wasn’t exactly encouraging when she admitted to having few ideas on UN reform during her recent hearing before the European Parliament, but there is time to learn.  The lessons of Iraq in particular.

The stakes are pressing: the Middle East, from Gaza to Kabul, remains an active volcano; Iran rumbles the seismometer everyday.  Dealing with Iran will require above all unity – but also intelligence and sensitivity too.  It is Cathy Ashton’s big task.

Were we playing some diplomatic board game and you were playing Iran, then it would be entirely logical for you to seek a nuclear weapon, not for aggressive purposes, but for deterrence. You are, after all, surrounded by nuclear states, while two countries on your borders have been invaded in the last decade by American Presidents seeking regime change.  Just because you are a hardline, repressive, fundamentalist state doesn’t mean you don’t also have genuine security concerns.

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Those who read what I wrote recently supporting Blair for the Council Presidency will perhaps accuse me now of hypocrisy, or at least of turning my coat. No!  Despite not exonerating him for his part in the Iraq war, I still think that Blair’s skills would have helped Europe. Would Blair (even as a designate) have seen Europe left out of the Copenhagen accord, for instance? Sometimes even your adversaries have skills you need.

Photo, courtesy of Wikipedia, shows the Red Arrows display team performing over the RAF base at Akrotiri.